Sturm Graz vs Marseille Prediction & Betting Tips 22/10/2026

Sturm Graz vs Marseille preview

Sturm Graz faces Marseille with a 65% chance of winning, while Marseille has just a 16% chance according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with a 9% probability. Sturm Graz's expected goals stand at 2.43, significantly higher than Marseille's 1.15, indicating a strong offensive edge.

The match could deviate from predictions if Marseille improves their recent form, which shows 6 games with 5 losses. Additionally, while our model suggests a 69% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance for both teams to score, any unexpected defensive performance from Marseille could change the outcome.

Sturm Graz vs Marseille: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Sturm Graz	Draw	Marseille
Model	65%	20%	16%
Market	—	—	—
Published	65%	20%	16%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.43 vs 1.15.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Sturm Graz and Marseille expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.43Sturm Graz

1.15Marseille

Total expected goals: 3.58
Attack rating (Sturm Graz / Marseille): 1.02 / 1.26
Defence rating (Sturm Graz / Marseille): 0.80 / 1.53

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sturm Graz vs Marseille score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.6% 2.4% 1.9% 0.7% 0.3% 1 6.0% 8.6% 4.5% 1.7% 0.6% 2 8.2% 9.5% 5.4% 2.1% 0.8% 3 6.7% 7.7% 4.4% 1.7% 0.6% 4+ 7.2% 8.3% 4.8% 1.8% 0.7%

Rows: Sturm Graz goals. Columns: Marseille goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sturm Graz vs Marseille goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 88%

Over 2.5 69%

Over 3.5 48%

Both teams to score: 63%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sturm Graz vs Marseille

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Sturm Graz	65%	1.55
	Draw	20%	5.09
	Marseille	16%	6.38
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	69%	1.44
	Under 2.5	31%	3.26
Both teams to score	Yes	63%	1.58
	No	37%	2.71
Double chance	1X (Sturm Graz or draw)	84%	1.19
	12 (either side)	80%	1.24
	X2 (draw or Marseille)	35%	2.83
Handicap -1	Sturm Graz win by 2+	44%	2.29
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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