Juventus vs Rennes Prediction & Betting Tips 22/10/2026

Juventus vs Rennes preview

Juventus faces Rennes with a strong 79% chance to win according to our model, while Rennes has just a 7% probability of victory. The expected goals show Juventus at 2.90 and Rennes at 0.80, suggesting a likely scoreline of 2-0, which has a 10% probability.

The model also indicates a 72% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance for both teams to score. However, if Rennes can improve their attacking performance, they may disrupt Juventus's dominance, potentially impacting the expected goals and overall match outcome.

Why this pick: Juventus vs Rennes

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Juventus 10, Rennes 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

JuventusRennes

2.01 xG per 90 2.03

2.01 npxG per 90 1.94

9.2 PPDA 10.5

10.8 Deep completions per 90 8.9

2.43 xPTS per 90 1.34

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Juventus vs Rennes: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Juventus	Draw	Rennes
Model	79%	14%	7%
Market	—	—	—
Published	79%	14%	7%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.94 vs 0.83.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Juventus and Rennes expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.94Juventus

0.83Rennes

Total expected goals: 3.77
Attack rating (Juventus / Rennes): 1.50 / 1.27
Defence rating (Juventus / Rennes): 0.57 / 1.27

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Juventus vs Rennes score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.9% 1.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 1 6.2% 6.2% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 2 10.0% 8.3% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2% 3 9.8% 8.1% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2% 4+ 14.8% 12.3% 5.1% 1.4% 0.3%

Rows: Juventus goals. Columns: Rennes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Juventus vs Rennes goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 90%

Over 2.5 73%

Over 3.5 52%

Both teams to score: 54%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Juventus vs Rennes

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Juventus	79%	1.26
	Draw	14%	7.38
	Rennes	7%	14.33
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	73%	1.38
	Under 2.5	27%	3.66
Both teams to score	Yes	54%	1.85
	No	46%	2.17
Double chance	1X (Juventus or draw)	93%	1.08
	12 (either side)	86%	1.16
	X2 (draw or Rennes)	21%	4.87
Handicap -1	Juventus win by 2+	61%	1.64
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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