Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction & Betting Tips 22/10/2026

Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen preview

In the UEFA Europa League fixture between Dinamo Zagreb and NEC Nijmegen, Dinamo Zagreb has a 73% probability to win, while NEC Nijmegen sits at 11%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 9% chance. The model also suggests a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams to score at 64%.

However, the recent form shows Dinamo Zagreb with mixed results (L-W-D-L-W-D) and NEC Nijmegen struggling (D-D-L-L-D-L). This could affect the outcome, as both teams may not perform as expected based on their recent performances. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.

Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Dinamo Zagreb	Draw	NEC Nijmegen
Model	73%	16%	11%
Market	—	—	—
Published	73%	16%	11%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.88 vs 1.11.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Dinamo Zagreb and NEC Nijmegen expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.88Dinamo Zagreb

1.11NEC Nijmegen

Total expected goals: 3.98
Attack rating (Dinamo Zagreb / NEC Nijmegen): 1.32 / 0.89
Defence rating (Dinamo Zagreb / NEC Nijmegen): 1.09 / 1.41

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.5% 1.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 1 4.8% 6.5% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4% 2 7.7% 8.5% 4.7% 1.7% 0.6% 3 7.4% 8.2% 4.5% 1.7% 0.6% 4+ 10.7% 11.9% 6.6% 2.4% 0.9%

Rows: Dinamo Zagreb goals. Columns: NEC Nijmegen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%

Over 1.5 91%

Over 2.5 76%

Over 3.5 56%

Both teams to score: 64%
No goals (0–0): 2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Dinamo Zagreb	73%	1.37
	Draw	16%	6.35
	NEC Nijmegen	11%	8.98
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	76%	1.32
	Under 2.5	24%	4.16
Both teams to score	Yes	64%	1.57
	No	36%	2.76
Double chance	1X (Dinamo Zagreb or draw)	89%	1.13
	12 (either side)	84%	1.19
	X2 (draw or NEC Nijmegen)	27%	3.72
Handicap -1	Dinamo Zagreb win by 2+	54%	1.86
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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