Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva preview
In the UEFA Europa League match between Union St. Gilloise and Hapoel Beer Sheva, the 1X2 probabilities show Union St. Gilloise at 68% to win, while Hapoel Beer Sheva stands at 13%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 10% chance of occurring. Union St. Gilloise has an expected goals figure of 2.37, compared to Hapoel Beer Sheva's 0.94, indicating a significant attacking advantage.
However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty. While there is a 64% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance for both teams to score, unexpected performances or defensive errors could lead to a different outcome.
Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva: model vs market
| Source | Union St. Gilloise | Draw | Hapoel Beer Sheva |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68% | 19% | 13% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 68% | 19% | 13% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.37 vs 0.94.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Union St. Gilloise and Hapoel Beer Sheva expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.31
- Attack rating (Union St. Gilloise / Hapoel Beer Sheva)
- 1.68 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Union St. Gilloise / Hapoel Beer Sheva)
- 0.73 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Union St. Gilloise goals. Columns: Hapoel Beer Sheva goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union St. Gilloise | 68% | 1.47 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.19 | |
| Hapoel Beer Sheva | 13% | 7.98 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.78 |
| No | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Union St. Gilloise or draw) | 87% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Hapoel Beer Sheva) | 32% | 3.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | Union St. Gilloise win by 2+ | 46% | 2.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Union St. Gilloise and Hapoel Beer Sheva recent form
Union St. Gilloise
5W 1D 0L
Hapoel Beer Sheva
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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Before and after this match
- Union St. Gilloise, previous: Union St. Gilloise vs Nijlen: odds and pick
- Hapoel Beer Sheva, previous: Hapoel Beer Sheva – Hapoel Katamon, 2026-10-17