Lech Poznan vs Sunderland preview
In the UEFA Europa League fixture between Lech Poznan and Sunderland, the 1X2 probabilities show Lech Poznan at 67% to win, while Sunderland sits at 15%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to our model. The expected goals indicate Lech Poznan at 2.69 and Sunderland at 1.25, suggesting a strong attacking performance from the home side.
Lech Poznan has a recent form of W-W-L-L-W-W, while Sunderland has struggled with L-L-W-L-W-D. The high probability of Over 2.5 goals at 75% and both teams to score at 67% reflects potential for an exciting match. However, if Sunderland improves their form, they could challenge Lech Poznan's dominance.
Lech Poznan vs Sunderland: model vs market
| Source | Lech Poznan | Draw | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67% | 18% | 15% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 67% | 18% | 15% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.69 vs 1.25.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Lech Poznan and Sunderland expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.94
- Attack rating (Lech Poznan / Sunderland)
- 1.69 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Lech Poznan / Sunderland)
- 0.97 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lech Poznan vs Sunderland score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lech Poznan goals. Columns: Sunderland goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lech Poznan vs Sunderland goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lech Poznan vs Sunderland
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lech Poznan | 67% | 1.49 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.60 | |
| Sunderland | 15% | 6.70 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.49 |
| No | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lech Poznan or draw) | 85% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Sunderland) | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lech Poznan win by 2+ | 47% | 2.12 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Lech Poznan and Sunderland recent form
Lech Poznan
4W 0D 2L
Sunderland
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lech Poznan at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 2
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lech Poznan at home only, Sunderland away only.
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Before and after this match
- Lech Poznan, previous: Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce: odds and pick
- Lech Poznan, next: Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Lech Poznan: odds and pick
- Sunderland, previous: Bournemouth v Sunderland analysis
- Sunderland, next: Sunderland v Brentford analysis