Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce preview
In the Ekstraklasa fixture between Lech Poznan and Korona Kielce, Lech Poznan has a 64% probability to win, while Korona Kielce stands at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 10% chance according to our model. Lech Poznan's expected goals are 2.32, compared to Korona Kielce's 0.98, highlighting a significant offensive advantage.
However, the match could deviate from these predictions. Both teams to score has a 57% probability, indicating that Korona Kielce could find the net. Additionally, Lech Poznan's recent form shows some inconsistency with two losses in their last six matches, which could affect their performance.
Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce: model vs market
| Source | Lech Poznan | Draw | Korona Kielce |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67% | 20% | 14% |
| Market | 64% | 20% | 16% |
| Published | 64% | 20% | 15% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 0.98.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Lech Poznan below the model: +3.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.51, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lech Poznan, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznan | 1.46 | 1.45 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 4.53 | 4.50 | -0.03 |
| Korona Kielce | 5.80 | 5.75 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lech Poznan and Korona Kielce expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.29
- Attack rating (Lech Poznan / Korona Kielce)
- 1.63 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Lech Poznan / Korona Kielce)
- 0.94 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lech Poznan goals. Columns: Korona Kielce goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lech Poznan | 64% | 1.56 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.92 | |
| Korona Kielce | 15% | 6.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.75 |
| No | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lech Poznan or draw) | 85% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Korona Kielce) | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lech Poznan win by 2+ | 45% | 2.24 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Lech Poznan and Korona Kielce recent form
Lech Poznan
4W 0D 2L
Korona Kielce
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lech Poznan at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-0
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.40
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Korona Kielce away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- 54% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lech Poznan at home only, Korona Kielce away only.
Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Lech Poznan 1 · draws 1 · Korona Kielce 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Korona Kielce | 1-2 | Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-08-16 | Lech Poznan | 1-1 | Korona Kielce | Ekstraklasa |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow 2026-10-16
- Motor Lublin v Slask Wroclaw — match page 2026-10-17
- GKS Katowice vs Pogon Szczecin — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Cracovia Krakow v Legia Warszawa — match page 2026-10-17
- Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice 2026-10-18
- Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Wisla Plock v Radomiak Radom — match page 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Lech Poznan, previous: Lech Poznan – Bayer Leverkusen, 2026-10-15
- Lech Poznan, next: Lech Poznan vs Sunderland: odds and pick
- Korona Kielce, previous: Pogon Szczecin v Korona Kielce analysis