Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia preview
In the Ekstraklasa match between Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia, the 1X2 probabilities show Zaglebie Lubin at 36% and Jagiellonia at 38%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a probability of 7%. The expected goals are 1.64 for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.34 for Jagiellonia, indicating a competitive match.
Both teams to score is projected at 61%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 57%. However, Zaglebie Lubin's recent form includes 2 losses and only 1 win in their last 6 matches, which could impact their performance. Jagiellonia has lost 5 of their last 6 games, suggesting they may struggle to maintain their head-to-head advantage, having won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia: model vs market
| Source | Zaglebie Lubin | Draw | Jagiellonia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Market | 33% | 26% | 40% |
| Published | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Edge | +10% | 0% | -10% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.45, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Jagiellonia, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zaglebie Lubin | 2.77 | 2.77 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| Jagiellonia | 2.30 | 2.30 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.98
- Attack rating (Zaglebie Lubin / Jagiellonia)
- 0.87 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Zaglebie Lubin / Jagiellonia)
- 1.04 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Zaglebie Lubin goals. Columns: Jagiellonia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zaglebie Lubin | 36% | 2.78 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Jagiellonia | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.65 |
| No | 39% | 2.53 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Zaglebie Lubin or draw) | 62% | 1.60 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Jagiellonia) | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Handicap -1 | Jagiellonia win by 2+ | 14% | 7.29 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Zaglebie Lubin and Jagiellonia recent form
Zaglebie Lubin
2W 1D 3L
Jagiellonia
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Zaglebie Lubin at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 59% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Jagiellonia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 67% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Zaglebie Lubin at home only, Jagiellonia away only.
Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Zaglebie Lubin 0 · draws 1 · Jagiellonia 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Jagiellonia | 1-0 | Zaglebie Lubin | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-11-30 | Zaglebie Lubin | 0-0 | Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow 2026-10-16
- Motor Lublin v Slask Wroclaw — match page 2026-10-17
- GKS Katowice vs Pogon Szczecin — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Cracovia Krakow v Legia Warszawa — match page 2026-10-17
- Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice 2026-10-18
- Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce 2026-10-18
- Wisla Plock v Radomiak Radom — match page 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Zaglebie Lubin, previous: Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin prediction
- Jagiellonia, previous: Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia prediction
- Jagiellonia, next: Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht: odds and pick