Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin preview
In the Ekstraklasa fixture between Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin, the model gives Cracovia Krakow a 46% chance to win, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0. The expected goals are 1.25 for Cracovia Krakow and 1.17 for Zaglebie Lubin, indicating a close match. The market suggests a 44% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 51% probability for both teams to score.
Cracovia Krakow's recent form shows three losses in their last five matches, while Zaglebie Lubin has two wins in the same period. This could influence the outcome, as Cracovia's struggles may lead to a different result than expected. The head-to-head record shows no wins for either team in their last two encounters, both ending in draws.
Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin: model vs market
| Source | Cracovia Krakow | Draw | Zaglebie Lubin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| Market | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Published | 46% | 28% | 26% |
| Edge | -12% | +3% | +9% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cracovia Krakow, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cracovia Krakow | 1.85 | 1.90 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 3.46 | 3.40 | -0.06 |
| Zaglebie Lubin | 3.95 | 3.84 | -0.11 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.42
- Attack rating (Cracovia Krakow / Zaglebie Lubin)
- 0.84 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Cracovia Krakow / Zaglebie Lubin)
- 1.11 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cracovia Krakow goals. Columns: Zaglebie Lubin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cracovia Krakow | 46% | 2.19 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Zaglebie Lubin | 26% | 3.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.29 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.98 |
| No | 49% | 2.02 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cracovia Krakow or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Zaglebie Lubin) | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cracovia Krakow win by 2+ | 17% | 5.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin recent form
Cracovia Krakow
1W 1D 4L
Zaglebie Lubin
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cracovia Krakow at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Zaglebie Lubin away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 67% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cracovia Krakow at home only, Zaglebie Lubin away only.
Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Cracovia Krakow 0 · draws 2 · Zaglebie Lubin 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Zaglebie Lubin | 0-0 | Cracovia Krakow | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-11-03 | Cracovia Krakow | 0-0 | Zaglebie Lubin | Ekstraklasa |
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