Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice preview
In the Ekstraklasa fixture between Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice, the model gives Raków a 42% chance to win, while GKS has a 34% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 7% probability. The high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score, both at 75%, suggests an attacking game could unfold.
Raków's recent form shows six matches with three losses, while GKS has won two of their last three. The expected goals are close, with Raków at 1.94 and GKS at 1.98, indicating a competitive match. However, Raków's poor recent performance could lead to an unexpected outcome.
Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice: model vs market
| Source | Raków Częstochowa | Draw | GKS Katowice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 22% | 40% |
| Market | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| Published | 42% | 24% | 34% |
| Edge | -5% | -3% | +8% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.17, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Raków Częstochowa, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raków Częstochowa | 2.17 | 2.15 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.70 | -0.10 |
| GKS Katowice | 2.90 | 2.90 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.92
- Attack rating (Raków Częstochowa / GKS Katowice)
- 1.10 / 1.23
- Defence rating (Raków Częstochowa / GKS Katowice)
- 1.36 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Raków Częstochowa goals. Columns: GKS Katowice goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 75%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Raków Częstochowa | 42% | 2.39 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.10 | |
| GKS Katowice | 34% | 2.95 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 4.01 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75% | 1.34 |
| No | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Raków Częstochowa or draw) | 66% | 1.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or GKS Katowice) | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | Raków Częstochowa win by 2+ | 21% | 4.79 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice recent form
Raków Częstochowa
1W 0D 5L
GKS Katowice
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Raków Częstochowa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 2.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
GKS Katowice away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Raków Częstochowa at home only, GKS Katowice away only.
Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Raków Częstochowa 2 · draws 1 · GKS Katowice 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | Raków Częstochowa | 3-3 | GKS Katowice | Poland Cup |
| 2025-12-07 | Raków Częstochowa | 1-0 | GKS Katowice | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-07-19 | GKS Katowice | 0-1 | Raków Częstochowa | Ekstraklasa |
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