Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan: model vs market
| Source | Slask Wroclaw | Draw | Lech Poznan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 23% | 47% |
| Market | 19% | 22% | 59% |
| Published | 22% | 22% | 56% |
| Edge | +11% | +1% | -12% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 1.59.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lech Poznan, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slask Wroclaw | 4.82 | 4.80 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 4.30 | 4.20 | -0.10 |
| Lech Poznan | 1.57 | 1.57 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Slask Wroclaw and Lech Poznan expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.59
- Attack rating (Slask Wroclaw / Lech Poznan)
- 1.04 / 1.56
- Defence rating (Slask Wroclaw / Lech Poznan)
- 1.08 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Slask Wroclaw goals. Columns: Lech Poznan goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Slask Wroclaw | 22% | 4.57 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.48 | |
| Lech Poznan | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.29 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.43 |
| No | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Slask Wroclaw or draw) | 44% | 2.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Lech Poznan) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lech Poznan win by 2+ | 27% | 3.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Slask Wroclaw and Lech Poznan recent form
Slask Wroclaw
1W 2D 3L
Lech Poznan
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Slask Wroclaw at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Lech Poznan away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Slask Wroclaw at home only, Lech Poznan away only.
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