Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź: model vs market
| Source | Piast Gliwice | Draw | Widzew Łódź |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 25% | 21% |
| Market | 36% | 27% | 38% |
| Published | 40% | 26% | 33% |
| Edge | +19% | -2% | -17% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.08.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Piast Gliwice below the model: +19.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.69, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Piast Gliwice, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Piast Gliwice | 2.62 | 2.59 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.47 | -0.02 |
| Widzew Łódź | 2.45 | 2.45 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.95
- Attack rating (Piast Gliwice / Widzew Łódź)
- 1.23 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Piast Gliwice / Widzew Łódź)
- 0.95 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Piast Gliwice goals. Columns: Widzew Łódź goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Piast Gliwice | 40% | 2.47 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Widzew Łódź | 33% | 2.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| No | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Piast Gliwice or draw) | 67% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Widzew Łódź) | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Handicap -1 | Piast Gliwice win by 2+ | 32% | 3.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź recent form
Piast Gliwice
4W 1D 1L
Widzew Łódź
0W 4D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Piast Gliwice at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Widzew Łódź away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-0
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Piast Gliwice at home only, Widzew Łódź away only.
Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Piast Gliwice 0 · draws 0 · Widzew Łódź 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Widzew Łódź | 2-1 | Piast Gliwice | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-11-28 | Piast Gliwice | 0-2 | Widzew Łódź | Ekstraklasa |
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