Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze: model vs market
| Source | Jagiellonia | Draw | Gornik Zabrze |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Market | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Published | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -3% |
- The market prices Jagiellonia below the model: +3.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Jagiellonia, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia | 2.53 | 2.43 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.40 | -0.05 |
| Gornik Zabrze | 2.50 | 2.60 | +0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.86
- Attack rating (Jagiellonia / Gornik Zabrze)
- 1.11 / 1.01
- Defence rating (Jagiellonia / Gornik Zabrze)
- 1.10 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Jagiellonia goals. Columns: Gornik Zabrze goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jagiellonia | 39% | 2.60 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.70 | |
| Gornik Zabrze | 34% | 2.90 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.70 |
| No | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Jagiellonia or draw) | 66% | 1.53 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Gornik Zabrze) | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | Jagiellonia win by 2+ | 21% | 4.83 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze recent form
Jagiellonia
2W 0D 4L
Gornik Zabrze
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Jagiellonia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- 67% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gornik Zabrze away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-0
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.40
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Jagiellonia at home only, Gornik Zabrze away only.
Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Jagiellonia 0 · draws 0 · Gornik Zabrze 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Jagiellonia | 1-2 | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-10-26 | Gornik Zabrze | 2-1 | Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa |
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