Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin: model vs market
| Source | Radomiak Radom | Draw | Motor Lublin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 28% | 42% |
| Market | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Published | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Edge | -9% | +2% | +7% |
- The market prices Motor Lublin below the model: +6.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.85, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Motor Lublin, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Radomiak Radom | 2.27 | 2.40 | +0.12 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.60 | +0.15 |
| Motor Lublin | 2.80 | 2.62 | -0.18 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.69
- Attack rating (Radomiak Radom / Motor Lublin)
- 0.71 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Radomiak Radom / Motor Lublin)
- 1.37 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Radomiak Radom goals. Columns: Motor Lublin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Radomiak Radom | 37% | 2.74 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Motor Lublin | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.80 |
| No | 45% | 2.25 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Radomiak Radom or draw) | 63% | 1.59 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Motor Lublin) | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Handicap -1 | Motor Lublin win by 2+ | 21% | 4.73 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin recent form
Radomiak Radom
2W 2D 2L
Motor Lublin
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Radomiak Radom at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
Motor Lublin away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Radomiak Radom at home only, Motor Lublin away only.
Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Radomiak Radom 0 · draws 2 · Motor Lublin 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Radomiak Radom | 1-1 | Motor Lublin | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-09-29 | Motor Lublin | 2-2 | Radomiak Radom | Ekstraklasa |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Wieczysta Kraków vs Wisla Plock — team news & stats 2026-10-09
- Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice 2026-10-09
- Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Slask Wroclaw v Lech Poznan — match page 2026-10-10
- Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze 2026-10-10
- Piast Gliwice v Widzew Łódź — match page 2026-10-11
- Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce 2026-10-11
- Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow — team news & stats 2026-10-11