Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow: model vs market
| Source | Legia Warszawa | Draw | Wisla Krakow |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Market | 47% | 25% | 28% |
| Published | 47% | 25% | 28% |
| Edge | 0% | +1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.24.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Legia Warszawa, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legia Warszawa | 1.96 | 1.96 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.65 | -0.05 |
| Wisla Krakow | 3.33 | 3.31 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.95
- Attack rating (Legia Warszawa / Wisla Krakow)
- 1.27 / 1.20
- Defence rating (Legia Warszawa / Wisla Krakow)
- 0.87 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Legia Warszawa goals. Columns: Wisla Krakow goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Legia Warszawa | 47% | 2.12 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Wisla Krakow | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.30 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.69 |
| No | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Legia Warszawa or draw) | 72% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Wisla Krakow) | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Handicap -1 | Legia Warszawa win by 2+ | 26% | 3.87 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow recent form
Legia Warszawa
2W 3D 1L
Wisla Krakow
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Legia Warszawa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
Wisla Krakow away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Legia Warszawa at home only, Wisla Krakow away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
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- Piast Gliwice v Widzew Łódź — match page 2026-10-11
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