Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce: model vs market
| Source | Pogon Szczecin | Draw | Korona Kielce |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 30% | 22% |
| Market | 43% | 28% | 30% |
| Published | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Edge | +5% | +2% | -8% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 0.86.
- The market prices Pogon Szczecin below the model: +5.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.29, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Pogon Szczecin, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pogon Szczecin | 2.20 | 2.15 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.38 | 3.30 | -0.08 |
| Korona Kielce | 3.11 | 3.10 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.24
- Attack rating (Pogon Szczecin / Korona Kielce)
- 1.05 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Pogon Szczecin / Korona Kielce)
- 0.76 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Pogon Szczecin goals. Columns: Korona Kielce goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pogon Szczecin | 44% | 2.27 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.53 | |
| Korona Kielce | 28% | 3.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.25 |
| No | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Pogon Szczecin or draw) | 72% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Korona Kielce) | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Handicap -1 | Pogon Szczecin win by 2+ | 24% | 4.18 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Pogon Szczecin and Korona Kielce recent form
Pogon Szczecin
2W 3D 1L
Korona Kielce
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Pogon Szczecin at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Korona Kielce away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Pogon Szczecin at home only, Korona Kielce away only.
Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Pogon Szczecin 1 · draws 0 · Korona Kielce 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | Pogon Szczecin | 2-1 | Korona Kielce | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-09-13 | Korona Kielce | 1-0 | Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
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