Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa preview
In the Ekstraklasa fixture between Wieczysta Kraków and Raków Częstochowa, the 1X2 probabilities show Wieczysta Kraków at 51%, while Raków Częstochowa is at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance. The model indicates a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 77% and both teams to score at 75%.
However, recent form could impact the outcome. Wieczysta Kraków has a record of D-L-D-L-L-L, while Raków Częstochowa has L-L-W-L-L-L. This inconsistency in performance may affect the expected goals, which are 2.32 for Wieczysta Kraków and 1.71 for Raków Częstochowa.
Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa: model vs market
| Source | Wieczysta Kraków | Draw | Raków Częstochowa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 18% | 18% |
| Market | 40% | 25% | 35% |
| Published | 46% | 24% | 31% |
| Edge | +24% | -7% | -17% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.73 vs 1.47.
- The market prices Wieczysta Kraków below the model: +23.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update.
Wieczysta Kraków and Raków Częstochowa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.19
- Attack rating (Wieczysta Kraków / Raków Częstochowa)
- 1.14 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Wieczysta Kraków / Raków Częstochowa)
- 1.18 / 1.50
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Wieczysta Kraków goals. Columns: Raków Częstochowa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wieczysta Kraków | 46% | 2.20 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.25 | |
| Raków Częstochowa | 31% | 3.23 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79% | 1.27 |
| Under 2.5 | 21% | 4.73 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.38 |
| No | 27% | 3.64 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Wieczysta Kraków or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Raków Częstochowa) | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Handicap -1 | Wieczysta Kraków win by 2+ | 44% | 2.27 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Wieczysta Kraków and Raków Częstochowa recent form
Wieczysta Kraków
1W 2D 3L
Raków Częstochowa
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Wieczysta Kraków at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Raków Częstochowa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Wieczysta Kraków at home only, Raków Częstochowa away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- Wieczysta Kraków, previous: GKS Katowice v Wieczysta Kraków analysis
- Raków Częstochowa, previous: Raków Częstochowa – GKS Katowice, 2026-10-09