Updated

Ekstraklasa · Matchday 3

GKS Katowice vs Wieczysta Kraków

· Stadion GKS Katowice, Katowice· Referee Marcin Kochanek

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was GKS Katowice to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
GKS KatowiceDrawWieczysta Kraków

GKS Katowice vs Wieczysta Kraków: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGKS KatowiceDrawWieczysta Kraków
Model61%19%20%
Market46%24%30%
Published49%23%27%
Edge+4%-1%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.60 vs 1.50.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices GKS Katowice below our published probability: +3.8 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

GKS Katowice vs Wieczysta Kraków odds movement

Median bookmaker price on GKS Katowice, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 2.27Now 2.03 -0.25
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
GKS Katowice2.272.03-0.25
Draw3.423.80+0.38
Wieczysta Kraków2.953.11+0.17

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

GKS Katowice and Wieczysta Kraków expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.60GKS Katowice
1.50Wieczysta Kraków
Total expected goals
4.10
Attack rating (GKS Katowice / Wieczysta Kraków)
1.39 / 1.14
Defence rating (GKS Katowice / Wieczysta Kraków)
1.09 / 1.18

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

GKS Katowice vs Wieczysta Kraków score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.3% 1.8% 1.9% 0.9% 0.5% 1 3.7% 7.1% 4.8% 2.4% 1.3% 2 5.6% 8.4% 6.3% 3.1% 1.6% 3 4.9% 7.3% 5.5% 2.7% 1.4% 4+ 5.9% 8.9% 6.6% 3.3% 1.7%

Rows: GKS Katowice goals. Columns: Wieczysta Kraków goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

GKS Katowice vs Wieczysta Kraków goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 78%
Over 3.5 59%
Both teams to score
73%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for GKS Katowice vs Wieczysta Kraków

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2GKS Katowice49%2.02
Draw23%4.33
Wieczysta Kraków27%3.65
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.578%1.29
Under 2.522%4.48
Both teams to scoreYes73%1.38
No27%3.64
Double chance1X (GKS Katowice or draw)73%1.38
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or Wieczysta Kraków)51%1.98
Handicap -1GKS Katowice win by 2+41%2.44
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

GKS Katowice and Wieczysta Kraków recent form

GKS Katowice 4W 0D 2L
Wieczysta Kraków 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

GKS Katowice at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.67
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They average 3.7 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Wieczysta Kraków away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-4
Win rate
17%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
2.33
Clean sheets
0 of 6
  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: GKS Katowice at home only, Wieczysta Kraków away only.

Expected lineups

GKS Katowice lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 87 G. Kobylak
  2. 55 Pau Resta
  3. 6 L. Klemenz
  4. 30 A. Czerwiński
  5. 7 M. Wdowiak
  6. 77 M. Kowalczyk
  7. 19 K. Łukasiak
  8. 23 M. Wasielewski
  9. 27 B. Nowak
  10. 17 I. Shkurin
  11. 10 M. Wędrychowski

Bench: M. Kikolski, A. Jędrych, Borja Galán, M. Olsen, E. Marković, Jakub Kokosinski, S. Milewski, S. Bartlewicz, B. Wolski, E. Jirka, A. Zreľák

Wieczysta Kraków lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 77 M. Kochalski
  2. 55 D. Dujmović
  3. 16 A. Milić
  4. 15 A. Đermanović
  5. 4 K. Fila
  6. 20 M. Maigaard
  7. 33 K. Pestka
  8. 10 T. Christensen
  9. 12 Lucas Piazón
  10. 19 José de la Rosa
  11. 7 Lisandro Semedo

Bench: A. Mikułko, B. Lederman, E. Koulouris, N. Knežević, K. Zagrodzki, K. Dankowski, B. Białek, M. Vojtko, P. Pušić, C. Lungoyi, T. Mras

Before and after this match