GKS Katowice vs Wieczysta Kraków: model vs market
| Source | GKS Katowice | Draw | Wieczysta Kraków |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 20% | 20% |
| Market | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Published | 47% | 24% | 28% |
| Edge | +17% | -6% | -11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.53 vs 1.44.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices GKS Katowice below the model: +17.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update.
GKS Katowice vs Wieczysta Kraków odds movement
Median bookmaker price on GKS Katowice, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| GKS Katowice | 2.27 | 2.15 | -0.12 |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.58 | +0.16 |
| Wieczysta Kraków | 2.95 | 2.97 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
GKS Katowice and Wieczysta Kraków expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.96
- Attack rating (GKS Katowice / Wieczysta Kraków)
- 1.23 / 1.08
- Defence rating (GKS Katowice / Wieczysta Kraków)
- 1.11 / 1.30
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
GKS Katowice vs Wieczysta Kraków score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: GKS Katowice goals. Columns: Wieczysta Kraków goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
GKS Katowice vs Wieczysta Kraków goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for GKS Katowice vs Wieczysta Kraków
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | GKS Katowice | 47% | 2.11 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.12 | |
| Wieczysta Kraków | 28% | 3.53 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76% | 1.32 |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 4.10 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.41 |
| No | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Double chance | 1X (GKS Katowice or draw) | 72% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Wieczysta Kraków) | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Handicap -1 | GKS Katowice win by 2+ | 40% | 2.47 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
GKS Katowice and Wieczysta Kraków recent form
GKS Katowice
3W 0D 3L
Wieczysta Kraków
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
GKS Katowice at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
Wieczysta Kraków away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: GKS Katowice at home only, Wieczysta Kraków away only.