GKS Katowice vs Pogon Szczecin preview
In the Ekstraklasa fixture between GKS Katowice and Pogon Szczecin, the 1X2 probabilities show GKS Katowice at 44%, Pogon Szczecin at 30%, and a draw at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with a 9% probability. GKS Katowice has a recent form of W-W-L-L-W-W, while Pogon Szczecin has W-W-D-L-D-D.
The model predicts Over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 62%. GKS Katowice's expected goals stand at 1.68, while Pogon Szczecin's are at 1.37. These figures indicate a competitive match, but the recent form of both teams could influence the outcome.
GKS Katowice vs Pogon Szczecin: model vs market
| Source | GKS Katowice | Draw | Pogon Szczecin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Market | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| Published | 45% | 25% | 29% |
| Edge | -9% | +3% | +6% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.02, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
GKS Katowice vs Pogon Szczecin odds movement
Median bookmaker price on GKS Katowice, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| GKS Katowice | 2.15 | 1.96 | -0.19 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.81 | +0.21 |
| Pogon Szczecin | 2.96 | 3.34 | +0.38 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
GKS Katowice and Pogon Szczecin expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.86
- Attack rating (GKS Katowice / Pogon Szczecin)
- 1.38 / 1.09
- Defence rating (GKS Katowice / Pogon Szczecin)
- 1.05 / 0.68
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
GKS Katowice vs Pogon Szczecin score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: GKS Katowice goals. Columns: Pogon Szczecin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
GKS Katowice vs Pogon Szczecin goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for GKS Katowice vs Pogon Szczecin
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | GKS Katowice | 45% | 2.20 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.97 | |
| Pogon Szczecin | 29% | 3.41 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.70 |
| No | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Double chance | 1X (GKS Katowice or draw) | 71% | 1.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Pogon Szczecin) | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Handicap -1 | GKS Katowice win by 2+ | 19% | 5.15 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
GKS Katowice and Pogon Szczecin recent form
GKS Katowice
4W 0D 2L
Pogon Szczecin
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
GKS Katowice at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.7 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pogon Szczecin away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: GKS Katowice at home only, Pogon Szczecin away only.
GKS Katowice vs Pogon Szczecin head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: GKS Katowice 1 · draws 1 · Pogon Szczecin 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Pogon Szczecin | 1-1 | GKS Katowice | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-11-29 | GKS Katowice | 2-0 | Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow 2026-10-16
- Motor Lublin v Slask Wroclaw — match page 2026-10-17
- Cracovia Krakow v Legia Warszawa — match page 2026-10-17
- Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice 2026-10-18
- Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce 2026-10-18
- Wisla Plock v Radomiak Radom — match page 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- GKS Katowice, previous: GKS Katowice v Wieczysta Kraków analysis
- GKS Katowice, next: Górnik Łęczna – GKS Katowice, 2026-10-27
- Pogon Szczecin, previous: Pogon Szczecin v Korona Kielce analysis