Górnik Łęczna vs GKS Katowice Prediction & Betting Tips 27/10/2026

Górnik Łęczna vs GKS Katowice preview

In the Poland Cup fixture between Górnik Łęczna and GKS Katowice, the 1X2 probabilities show GKS Katowice at 57%, compared to Górnik Łęczna at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Górnik Łęczna has struggled recently, recording four losses in their last six matches, while GKS Katowice has won four of their last six.

The model suggests a high likelihood of goals, with Over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams to score at 68%. However, Górnik Łęczna's recent form could impact the expected goals, which are 1.39 for them and 2.27 for GKS Katowice. If Górnik Łęczna performs better than expected, it could change the outcome.

Górnik Łęczna vs GKS Katowice: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Górnik Łęczna	Draw	GKS Katowice
Model	22%	21%	57%
Market	—	—	—
Published	22%	21%	57%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 1.39.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Górnik Łęczna and GKS Katowice expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.39Górnik Łęczna

2.27GKS Katowice

Total expected goals: 3.66
Attack rating (Górnik Łęczna / GKS Katowice): 0.95 / 1.29
Defence rating (Górnik Łęczna / GKS Katowice): 1.13 / 0.98

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Górnik Łęczna vs GKS Katowice score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.4% 5.0% 6.6% 5.0% 4.9% 1 2.8% 8.9% 9.2% 7.0% 6.8% 2 2.5% 5.6% 6.4% 4.9% 4.7% 3 1.1% 2.6% 3.0% 2.2% 2.2% 4+ 0.5% 1.2% 1.4% 1.1% 1.0%

Rows: Górnik Łęczna goals. Columns: GKS Katowice goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Górnik Łęczna vs GKS Katowice goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 89%

Over 2.5 71%

Over 3.5 50%

Both teams to score: 68%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Górnik Łęczna vs GKS Katowice

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Górnik Łęczna	22%	4.54
	Draw	21%	4.66
	GKS Katowice	57%	1.77
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	71%	1.41
	Under 2.5	29%	3.43
Both teams to score	Yes	68%	1.47
	No	32%	3.14
Double chance	1X (Górnik Łęczna or draw)	43%	2.30
	12 (either side)	79%	1.27
	X2 (draw or GKS Katowice)	78%	1.28
Handicap -1	GKS Katowice win by 2+	36%	2.78
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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