Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa preview
In the Poland Cup fixture between Motor Lublin and Raków Częstochowa, the 1X2 probabilities show Motor Lublin at 48%, while Raków Częstochowa sits at 29%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 69%, indicating a strong likelihood of an open game.
Motor Lublin's recent form shows 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, while Raków Częstochowa has struggled with 1 win and 5 losses. Historically, Raków has dominated with 4 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 encounters. This could impact the match outcome, as Motor Lublin has not beaten Raków in recent meetings.
Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa: model vs market
| Source | Motor Lublin | Draw | Raków Częstochowa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 23% | 29% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 48% | 23% | 29% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 1.56.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Motor Lublin and Raków Częstochowa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.57
- Attack rating (Motor Lublin / Raków Częstochowa)
- 0.97 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Motor Lublin / Raków Częstochowa)
- 1.03 / 1.39
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Motor Lublin goals. Columns: Raków Częstochowa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Motor Lublin | 48% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.30 | |
| Raków Częstochowa | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.44 |
| No | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Motor Lublin or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Raków Częstochowa) | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Handicap -1 | Motor Lublin win by 2+ | 28% | 3.59 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Motor Lublin and Raków Częstochowa recent form
Motor Lublin
2W 1D 3L
Raków Częstochowa
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Motor Lublin at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Motor Lublin at home only, Raków Częstochowa away only.
Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Motor Lublin 0 · draws 2 · Raków Częstochowa 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Raków Częstochowa | 2-1 | Motor Lublin | Ekstraklasa |
| 2026-04-12 | Motor Lublin | 1-1 | Raków Częstochowa | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-10-05 | Raków Częstochowa | 2-0 | Motor Lublin | Ekstraklasa |
| 2024-12-07 | Raków Częstochowa | 2-2 | Motor Lublin | Ekstraklasa |
| 2024-07-21 | Motor Lublin | 0-2 | Raków Częstochowa | Ekstraklasa |
| 2023-03-01 | Motor Lublin | 0-3 | Raków Częstochowa | Cup |
Other Round of 32 fixtures
- Olimpia Grudziądz vs Nieciecza 2026-10-27
- Górnik Łęczna v GKS Katowice — match page 2026-10-27
- Piast Gliwice v Gornik Zabrze — match page 2026-10-27
Before and after this match
- Motor Lublin, previous: Motor Lublin vs Slask Wroclaw: odds and pick
- Raków Częstochowa, previous: Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa prediction