Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction & Betting Tips 27/10/2026

Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze preview

In the Poland Cup fixture between Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze, the 1X2 probabilities show Gornik Zabrze at 38% and Piast Gliwice at 34%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Both teams to score has a probability of 58%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 53%.

Piast Gliwice has a recent form of 5 wins and 1 loss, while Gornik Zabrze has 5 wins and 1 draw. Gornik Zabrze has won both of the last two head-to-head matches. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating uncertainty in the predictions, which could be influenced by the teams' recent performances or tactical changes.

Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Piast Gliwice	Draw	Gornik Zabrze
Model	34%	28%	38%
Market	—	—	—
Published	34%	28%	38%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.35Piast Gliwice

1.45Gornik Zabrze

Total expected goals: 2.80
Attack rating (Piast Gliwice / Gornik Zabrze): 1.13 / 1.06
Defence rating (Piast Gliwice / Gornik Zabrze): 0.88 / 0.80

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.3% 7.6% 6.4% 3.1% 1.5% 1 7.0% 13.1% 8.6% 4.2% 2.1% 2 5.6% 8.1% 5.8% 2.8% 1.4% 3 2.5% 3.6% 2.6% 1.3% 0.6% 4+ 1.1% 1.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3%

Rows: Piast Gliwice goals. Columns: Gornik Zabrze goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 78%

Over 2.5 53%

Over 3.5 31%

Both teams to score: 58%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Piast Gliwice	34%	2.94
	Draw	28%	3.62
	Gornik Zabrze	38%	2.61
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	53%	1.88
	Under 2.5	47%	2.13
Both teams to score	Yes	58%	1.73
	No	42%	2.38
Double chance	1X (Piast Gliwice or draw)	62%	1.62
	12 (either side)	72%	1.38
	X2 (draw or Gornik Zabrze)	66%	1.52
Handicap -1	Gornik Zabrze win by 2+	19%	5.32
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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