Olimpia Grudziądz vs Nieciecza Prediction & Betting Tips 27/10/2026

Olimpia Grudziądz vs Nieciecza preview

In the Poland Cup fixture between Olimpia Grudziądz and Nieciecza, the 1X2 probabilities show Olimpia Grudziądz at 38%, Nieciecza at 40%, and a draw at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an expected goals tally of 1.98 for Olimpia Grudziądz and 2.02 for Nieciecza. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 76%.

Olimpia Grudziądz comes into this match with a recent form of W-W-L-W-D, while Nieciecza has a stronger run of D-W-W-W-W-D. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty. If either team underperforms or if the match ends in a draw, the predictions could be off.

Olimpia Grudziądz vs Nieciecza: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Olimpia Grudziądz	Draw	Nieciecza
Model	38%	22%	40%
Market	—	—	—
Published	38%	22%	40%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Olimpia Grudziądz and Nieciecza expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.98Olimpia Grudziądz

2.02Nieciecza

Total expected goals: 4.00
Attack rating (Olimpia Grudziądz / Nieciecza): 1.36 / 1.20
Defence rating (Olimpia Grudziądz / Nieciecza): 1.08 / 0.98

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Olimpia Grudziądz vs Nieciecza score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.6% 3.0% 3.7% 2.5% 2.0% 1 2.9% 8.1% 7.4% 5.0% 4.0% 2 3.6% 7.2% 7.3% 4.9% 4.0% 3 2.4% 4.8% 4.8% 3.3% 2.6% 4+ 1.8% 3.7% 3.8% 2.5% 2.0%

Rows: Olimpia Grudziądz goals. Columns: Nieciecza goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Olimpia Grudziądz vs Nieciecza goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 92%

Over 2.5 76%

Over 3.5 57%

Both teams to score: 76%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Olimpia Grudziądz vs Nieciecza

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Olimpia Grudziądz	38%	2.63
	Draw	22%	4.51
	Nieciecza	40%	2.51
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	76%	1.31
	Under 2.5	24%	4.20
Both teams to score	Yes	76%	1.32
	No	24%	4.08
Double chance	1X (Olimpia Grudziądz or draw)	60%	1.66
	12 (either side)	78%	1.28
	X2 (draw or Nieciecza)	62%	1.61
Handicap -1	Nieciecza win by 2+	22%	4.46
	Push (exactly one goal)	17%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer