Nieciecza vs Puszcza Niepołomice preview
Nieciecza faces Puszcza Niepołomice with 52% probability for a home win and an expected scoreline of 2-1 at 10%. The model suggests a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 56%. Nieciecza's recent form shows they are unbeaten in their last five matches, while Puszcza has lost three of their last six.
However, the predicted outcome could change if Puszcza improves their performance, as they have shown some ability to win, evidenced by their recent victory. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions. This match could be closer than the numbers suggest if Puszcza finds their rhythm.
Nieciecza vs Puszcza Niepołomice: model vs market
| Source | Nieciecza | Draw | Puszcza Niepołomice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 26% | 22% |
| Market | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Published | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.09.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Nieciecza below the model: +2.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.90, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Nieciecza vs Puszcza Niepołomice odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Nieciecza, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-14.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nieciecza | 1.83 | 1.83 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.46 | 3.46 | +0.00 |
| Puszcza Niepołomice | 3.73 | 3.73 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Nieciecza and Puszcza Niepołomice expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.87
- Attack rating (Nieciecza / Puszcza Niepołomice)
- 1.24 / 0.80
- Defence rating (Nieciecza / Puszcza Niepołomice)
- 1.01 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nieciecza vs Puszcza Niepołomice score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nieciecza goals. Columns: Puszcza Niepołomice goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nieciecza vs Puszcza Niepołomice goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nieciecza vs Puszcza Niepołomice
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nieciecza | 50% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Puszcza Niepołomice | 24% | 4.21 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.78 |
| No | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nieciecza or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Puszcza Niepołomice) | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nieciecza win by 2+ | 30% | 3.34 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Nieciecza and Puszcza Niepołomice recent form
Nieciecza
4W 2D 0L
Puszcza Niepołomice
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nieciecza at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Puszcza Niepołomice away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Nieciecza at home only, Puszcza Niepołomice away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Warta Poznań v Unia Skierniewice — match page 2026-10-16
- Ruch Chorzów v Odra Opole — match page 2026-10-16
- Miedz Legnica v Stal Mielec — match page 2026-10-17
- Polonia Bytom vs Chrobry Głogów — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa 2026-10-17
- ŁKS Łódź vs Podbeskidzie — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszów 2026-10-18
- Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Nieciecza, previous: Unia Skierniewice vs Nieciecza: odds and pick
- Nieciecza, next: Olimpia Grudziądz vs Nieciecza prediction
- Puszcza Niepołomice, previous: Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice: odds and pick
- Puszcza Niepołomice, next: Puszcza Niepołomice v Wisla Plock analysis