Miedz Legnica vs Stal Mielec preview
Miedz Legnica hosts Stal Mielec with a 60% probability of winning compared to Stal Mielec's 19%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 2.32 for Miedz Legnica and 1.26 for Stal Mielec. Additionally, there is a 69% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance for both teams to score.
Miedz Legnica's recent form shows two wins in their last five matches, while Stal Mielec has lost four of their last five. This disparity in form could influence the outcome, but the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. If Stal Mielec improves their performance, they could challenge Miedz Legnica's dominance in their head-to-head record, where Miedz Legnica has won both of the last two encounters.
Miedz Legnica vs Stal Mielec: model vs market
| Source | Miedz Legnica | Draw | Stal Mielec |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 24% | 23% |
| Market | 54% | 23% | 22% |
| Published | 54% | 23% | 22% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 1.25.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Miedz Legnica vs Stal Mielec odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Miedz Legnica, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miedz Legnica | 1.69 | 1.69 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.95 | 3.95 | +0.00 |
| Stal Mielec | 4.15 | 4.15 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Miedz Legnica and Stal Mielec expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.26
- Attack rating (Miedz Legnica / Stal Mielec)
- 0.87 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Miedz Legnica / Stal Mielec)
- 0.83 / 1.47
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Miedz Legnica vs Stal Mielec score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Miedz Legnica goals. Columns: Stal Mielec goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Miedz Legnica vs Stal Mielec goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Miedz Legnica vs Stal Mielec
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Miedz Legnica | 54% | 1.84 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.28 | |
| Stal Mielec | 22% | 4.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Miedz Legnica or draw) | 78% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Stal Mielec) | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Miedz Legnica win by 2+ | 32% | 3.10 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Miedz Legnica and Stal Mielec recent form
Miedz Legnica
1W 1D 4L
Stal Mielec
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Miedz Legnica at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Stal Mielec away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 3.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Miedz Legnica at home only, Stal Mielec away only.
Miedz Legnica vs Stal Mielec head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Miedz Legnica 2 · draws 1 · Stal Mielec 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Miedz Legnica | 1-0 | Stal Mielec | I Liga |
| 2025-10-26 | Stal Mielec | 1-2 | Miedz Legnica | I Liga |
| 2023-04-17 | Stal Mielec | 1-1 | Miedz Legnica | Ekstraklasa |
| 2022-10-02 | Miedz Legnica | 0-2 | Stal Mielec | Ekstraklasa |
| 2020-06-02 | Miedz Legnica | 1-2 | Stal Mielec | I Liga |
| 2019-08-26 | Stal Mielec | 1-0 | Miedz Legnica | I Liga |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Warta Poznań v Unia Skierniewice — match page 2026-10-16
- Ruch Chorzów v Odra Opole — match page 2026-10-16
- Polonia Bytom vs Chrobry Głogów — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa 2026-10-17
- ŁKS Łódź vs Podbeskidzie — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszów 2026-10-18
- Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Nieciecza vs Puszcza Niepołomice 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Miedz Legnica, previous: Odra Opole – Miedz Legnica, 2026-10-11
- Stal Mielec, previous: Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań prediction