Polonia Bytom vs Chrobry Głogów preview
In the I Liga fixture on 2026-10-17, Polonia Bytom has a 46% chance to win against Chrobry Głogów, who has a 25% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with Polonia expected to score 1.50 goals and Chrobry 1.06. The probabilities suggest a close match, but recent form shows Polonia struggling with 5 draws in their last 6 games, while Chrobry has 2 wins in their last 3 matches.
The model indicates a 47% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance for both teams to score. If Polonia Bytom's attack fails to convert their chances or if Chrobry's recent improvement continues, the expected outcomes could shift. This match could be tighter than the numbers suggest, given the recent performances of both teams.
Polonia Bytom vs Chrobry Głogów: model vs market
| Source | Polonia Bytom | Draw | Chrobry Głogów |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 29% | 24% |
| Market | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Published | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Edge | -2% | +3% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 0.98.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.93, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Polonia Bytom vs Chrobry Głogów odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Polonia Bytom, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polonia Bytom | 1.89 | 1.89 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| Chrobry Głogów | 3.65 | 3.65 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Polonia Bytom and Chrobry Głogów expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.42
- Attack rating (Polonia Bytom / Chrobry Głogów)
- 1.00 / 0.71
- Defence rating (Polonia Bytom / Chrobry Głogów)
- 1.01 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Polonia Bytom vs Chrobry Głogów score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Polonia Bytom goals. Columns: Chrobry Głogów goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Polonia Bytom vs Chrobry Głogów goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Polonia Bytom vs Chrobry Głogów
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Polonia Bytom | 48% | 2.08 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.71 | |
| Chrobry Głogów | 25% | 4.01 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.29 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.04 |
| No | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Polonia Bytom or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Chrobry Głogów) | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Handicap -1 | Polonia Bytom win by 2+ | 24% | 4.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Polonia Bytom and Chrobry Głogów recent form
Polonia Bytom
2W 4D 0L
Chrobry Głogów
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Polonia Bytom at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-4-0
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Chrobry Głogów away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
- 62% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Polonia Bytom at home only, Chrobry Głogów away only.
Polonia Bytom vs Chrobry Głogów head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Polonia Bytom 2 · draws 0 · Chrobry Głogów 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | Polonia Bytom | 2-0 | Chrobry Głogów | I Liga |
| 2025-07-26 | Chrobry Głogów | 0-1 | Polonia Bytom | I Liga |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Warta Poznań v Unia Skierniewice — match page 2026-10-16
- Ruch Chorzów v Odra Opole — match page 2026-10-16
- Miedz Legnica v Stal Mielec — match page 2026-10-17
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa 2026-10-17
- ŁKS Łódź vs Podbeskidzie — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszów 2026-10-18
- Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Nieciecza vs Puszcza Niepołomice 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Polonia Bytom, previous: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Bytom: odds and pick
- Chrobry Głogów, previous: Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki prediction