Warta Poznań vs Unia Skierniewice preview
Warta Poznań faces Unia Skierniewice with a 54% chance to win, while the most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 10%. Warta Poznań has an expected goals total of 1.83 compared to Unia Skierniewice's 1.08, suggesting a stronger attacking performance.
However, both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are each at 56%, indicating that the match could see more goals if both teams find the net. Warta Poznań's recent form shows mixed results with W-W-L-L-W-L, while Unia Skierniewice has a record of D-W-L-L-W-L. The confidence grade is C, reflecting some uncertainty in the outcome.
Warta Poznań vs Unia Skierniewice: model vs market
| Source | Warta Poznań | Draw | Unia Skierniewice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.07.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Warta Poznań and Unia Skierniewice expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.91
- Attack rating (Warta Poznań / Unia Skierniewice)
- 1.07 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Warta Poznań / Unia Skierniewice)
- 0.90 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Warta Poznań vs Unia Skierniewice score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Warta Poznań goals. Columns: Unia Skierniewice goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Warta Poznań vs Unia Skierniewice goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Warta Poznań vs Unia Skierniewice
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Warta Poznań | 54% | 1.85 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Unia Skierniewice | 21% | 4.77 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.77 |
| No | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Warta Poznań or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Unia Skierniewice) | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Handicap -1 | Warta Poznań win by 2+ | 31% | 3.18 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Warta Poznań and Unia Skierniewice recent form
Warta Poznań
3W 0D 3L
Unia Skierniewice
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Warta Poznań at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Unia Skierniewice away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Warta Poznań at home only, Unia Skierniewice away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Ruch Chorzów v Odra Opole — match page 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- Warta Poznań, previous: Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań prediction
- Unia Skierniewice, previous: Unia Skierniewice vs Nieciecza: odds and pick