Unia Skierniewice vs Nieciecza preview
Unia Skierniewice faces Nieciecza, with the model showing a 40% chance for Nieciecza to win compared to 35% for Unia Skierniewice. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, reflecting Nieciecza's stronger recent form, winning four of their last five matches.
The data suggests a 61% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance for both teams to score. Unia Skierniewice has expected goals of 1.36, while Nieciecza has 1.81. A potential factor that could change the outcome is Unia's inconsistent form, which includes two losses in their last three matches.
Unia Skierniewice vs Nieciecza: model vs market
| Source | Unia Skierniewice | Draw | Nieciecza |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 25% | 47% |
| Market | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Published | 35% | 26% | 40% |
| Edge | -9% | -1% | +9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.36.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Nieciecza below the model: +9.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.52, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Unia Skierniewice vs Nieciecza odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Nieciecza, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unia Skierniewice | 2.45 | 2.45 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.51 | -0.09 |
| Nieciecza | 2.45 | 2.41 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Unia Skierniewice and Nieciecza expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.17
- Attack rating (Unia Skierniewice / Nieciecza)
- 0.89 / 1.24
- Defence rating (Unia Skierniewice / Nieciecza)
- 1.08 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Unia Skierniewice vs Nieciecza score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Unia Skierniewice goals. Columns: Nieciecza goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Unia Skierniewice vs Nieciecza goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Unia Skierniewice vs Nieciecza
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Unia Skierniewice | 35% | 2.89 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.91 | |
| Nieciecza | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Unia Skierniewice or draw) | 60% | 1.66 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Nieciecza) | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nieciecza win by 2+ | 26% | 3.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Unia Skierniewice and Nieciecza recent form
Unia Skierniewice
2W 1D 3L
Nieciecza
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Unia Skierniewice at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
Nieciecza away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Unia Skierniewice at home only, Nieciecza away only.
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- Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań 2026-10-11
- ŁKS Łódź v Ruch Chorzów — match page 2026-10-11
- Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Bytom — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Odra Opole vs Miedz Legnica 2026-10-11
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