Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań: model vs market
| Source | Stal Mielec | Draw | Warta Poznań |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 22% | 53% |
| Market | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| Published | 31% | 25% | 44% |
| Edge | -8% | -4% | +12% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 1.56.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Warta Poznań below the model: +12.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Warta Poznań, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stal Mielec | 2.72 | 2.71 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.52 | -0.08 |
| Warta Poznań | 2.21 | 2.23 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.82
- Attack rating (Stal Mielec / Warta Poznań)
- 1.10 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Stal Mielec / Warta Poznań)
- 1.58 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Stal Mielec goals. Columns: Warta Poznań goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stal Mielec | 31% | 3.18 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Warta Poznań | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.40 |
| No | 29% | 3.51 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Stal Mielec or draw) | 56% | 1.78 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Warta Poznań) | 69% | 1.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | Warta Poznań win by 2+ | 33% | 3.03 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań recent form
Stal Mielec
0W 2D 4L
Warta Poznań
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Stal Mielec at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-1
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Warta Poznań away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-4
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Stal Mielec at home only, Warta Poznań away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Podbeskidzie v Pogoń Siedlce — match page 2026-10-09
- Arka Gdynia v Polonia Warszawa — match page 2026-10-10
- Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Unia Skierniewice vs Nieciecza 2026-10-10
- ŁKS Łódź v Ruch Chorzów — match page 2026-10-11
- Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Bytom — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Odra Opole vs Miedz Legnica 2026-10-11
- Stal Rzeszów vs Lechia Gdansk — team news & stats 2026-10-12