Stal Rzeszów vs Lechia Gdansk: model vs market
| Source | Stal Rzeszów | Draw | Lechia Gdansk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 23% | 39% |
| Market | 32% | 25% | 43% |
| Published | 34% | 25% | 42% |
| Edge | +5% | -2% | -4% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Stal Rzeszów vs Lechia Gdansk odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lechia Gdansk, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stal Rzeszów | 2.80 | 2.80 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| Lechia Gdansk | 2.11 | 2.11 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Stal Rzeszów and Lechia Gdansk expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.65
- Attack rating (Stal Rzeszów / Lechia Gdansk)
- 1.03 / 1.35
- Defence rating (Stal Rzeszów / Lechia Gdansk)
- 1.02 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Stal Rzeszów vs Lechia Gdansk score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Stal Rzeszów goals. Columns: Lechia Gdansk goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Stal Rzeszów vs Lechia Gdansk goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Stal Rzeszów vs Lechia Gdansk
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stal Rzeszów | 34% | 2.98 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.06 | |
| Lechia Gdansk | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.41 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.40 |
| No | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Stal Rzeszów or draw) | 58% | 1.72 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Lechia Gdansk) | 66% | 1.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lechia Gdansk win by 2+ | 21% | 4.70 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Stal Rzeszów and Lechia Gdansk recent form
Stal Rzeszów
5W 0D 1L
Lechia Gdansk
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Stal Rzeszów at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lechia Gdansk away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Stal Rzeszów at home only, Lechia Gdansk away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Podbeskidzie v Pogoń Siedlce — match page 2026-10-09
- Arka Gdynia v Polonia Warszawa — match page 2026-10-10
- Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Unia Skierniewice vs Nieciecza 2026-10-10
- Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań 2026-10-11
- ŁKS Łódź v Ruch Chorzów — match page 2026-10-11
- Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Bytom — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Odra Opole vs Miedz Legnica 2026-10-11