Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Bytom: model vs market
| Source | Puszcza Niepołomice | Draw | Polonia Bytom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Market | 37% | 26% | 36% |
| Published | 39% | 27% | 35% |
| Edge | +4% | +1% | -5% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Puszcza Niepołomice below the model: +4.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.49, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Bytom odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Puszcza Niepołomice, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Puszcza Niepołomice | 2.51 | 2.42 | -0.09 |
| Draw | 3.52 | 3.42 | -0.10 |
| Polonia Bytom | 2.45 | 2.50 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Puszcza Niepołomice and Polonia Bytom expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.84
- Attack rating (Puszcza Niepołomice / Polonia Bytom)
- 0.89 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Puszcza Niepołomice / Polonia Bytom)
- 0.93 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Bytom score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Puszcza Niepołomice goals. Columns: Polonia Bytom goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Bytom goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Bytom
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 39% | 2.60 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Polonia Bytom | 35% | 2.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Puszcza Niepołomice or draw) | 65% | 1.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Polonia Bytom) | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | Puszcza Niepołomice win by 2+ | 21% | 4.68 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Puszcza Niepołomice and Polonia Bytom recent form
Puszcza Niepołomice
2W 0D 4L
Polonia Bytom
1W 5D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Puszcza Niepołomice at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Polonia Bytom away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Puszcza Niepołomice at home only, Polonia Bytom away only.
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Bytom head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Puszcza Niepołomice 1 · draws 1 · Polonia Bytom 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 2-1 | Polonia Bytom | I Liga |
| 2025-10-04 | Polonia Bytom | 1-1 | Puszcza Niepołomice | I Liga |
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- ŁKS Łódź v Ruch Chorzów — match page 2026-10-11
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