Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki preview
Chrobry Głogów hosts Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki with a 41% chance of winning according to the model 1X2 probabilities. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which reflects Chrobry's expected goals of 1.12 compared to Pogoń's 0.97. However, the match could see a different outcome if Pogoń improves their recent form, which includes two wins in their last six matches.
The chances for Over 2.5 goals stand at 35%, while both teams to score is at 43%. Chrobry's recent form shows two draws and a loss in their last three matches, which may affect their performance. Pogoń's mixed results could also lead to an unexpected result, making this a potentially close encounter.
Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki: model vs market
| Source | Chrobry Głogów | Draw | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 33% | 30% |
| Market | 43% | 27% | 30% |
| Published | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| Edge | -5% | +5% | 0% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Chrobry Głogów, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chrobry Głogów | 2.15 | 2.12 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.43 | 3.29 | -0.14 |
| Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 3.01 | 3.00 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Chrobry Głogów and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.09
- Attack rating (Chrobry Głogów / Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki)
- 0.76 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Chrobry Głogów / Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki)
- 0.73 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Chrobry Głogów goals. Columns: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chrobry Głogów | 41% | 2.43 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35% | 2.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.31 |
| No | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Chrobry Głogów or draw) | 70% | 1.43 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki) | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Handicap -1 | Chrobry Głogów win by 2+ | 16% | 6.29 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Chrobry Głogów and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki recent form
Chrobry Głogów
2W 2D 2L
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Chrobry Głogów at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 0.6 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 62% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Chrobry Głogów at home only, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away only.
Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Chrobry Głogów 1 · draws 1 · Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Chrobry Głogów | 3-0 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | I Liga |
| 2025-08-23 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 1-1 | Chrobry Głogów | I Liga |
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