Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa preview
In the I Liga fixture between Arka Gdynia and Polonia Warszawa, the model gives Arka Gdynia a 39% chance to win, while Polonia Warszawa has a 33% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, occurring at an 8% probability. Both teams to score has a 58% chance, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 53%.
Arka Gdynia's recent form shows two losses, a draw, and two wins, while Polonia Warszawa has three wins, a draw, and two losses. The expected goals suggest Arka Gdynia at 1.35 and Polonia Warszawa at 1.44. A draw or a lower-scoring match could challenge the predictions, given the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the model's assessment.
Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa: model vs market
| Source | Arka Gdynia | Draw | Polonia Warszawa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Market | 41% | 27% | 31% |
| Published | 39% | 27% | 33% |
| Edge | -7% | +1% | +7% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.27, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Arka Gdynia, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arka Gdynia | 2.35 | 2.19 | -0.16 |
| Draw | 3.48 | 3.32 | -0.16 |
| Polonia Warszawa | 2.66 | 2.87 | +0.21 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Arka Gdynia and Polonia Warszawa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.78
- Attack rating (Arka Gdynia / Polonia Warszawa)
- 0.91 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Arka Gdynia / Polonia Warszawa)
- 0.99 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Arka Gdynia goals. Columns: Polonia Warszawa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arka Gdynia | 39% | 2.53 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Polonia Warszawa | 33% | 3.01 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.74 |
| No | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Arka Gdynia or draw) | 67% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Polonia Warszawa) | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Handicap -1 | Arka Gdynia win by 2+ | 16% | 6.32 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Arka Gdynia and Polonia Warszawa recent form
Arka Gdynia
1W 2D 3L
Polonia Warszawa
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Arka Gdynia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Polonia Warszawa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Arka Gdynia at home only, Polonia Warszawa away only.
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