Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Siedlce preview
In the I Liga fixture between Podbeskidzie and Pogoń Siedlce, the model gives Podbeskidzie a 46% chance of winning, with both teams to score at 51%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which reflects a tighter match given the expected goals of Podbeskidzie at 1.18 and Pogoń Siedlce at 1.27.
Podbeskidzie's recent form shows three draws and two losses, while Pogoń Siedlce has a stronger record with four wins and one loss in their last six matches. This difference in form could influence the outcome, making the prediction less certain. The confidence grade is C, indicating that while the probabilities are informative, the market's view may vary.
Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Siedlce: model vs market
| Source | Podbeskidzie | Draw | Pogoń Siedlce |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 30% | 37% |
| Market | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Published | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Edge | -17% | +4% | +13% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Siedlce odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Podbeskidzie, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Podbeskidzie | 1.76 | 1.83 | +0.07 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.56 | -0.04 |
| Pogoń Siedlce | 4.13 | 3.80 | -0.33 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Podbeskidzie and Pogoń Siedlce expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.45
- Attack rating (Podbeskidzie / Pogoń Siedlce)
- 0.87 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Podbeskidzie / Pogoń Siedlce)
- 1.05 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Siedlce score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Podbeskidzie goals. Columns: Pogoń Siedlce goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Siedlce goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Siedlce
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Podbeskidzie | 46% | 2.18 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.73 | |
| Pogoń Siedlce | 27% | 3.64 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.26 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.96 |
| No | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Podbeskidzie or draw) | 73% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Pogoń Siedlce) | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Handicap -1 | Podbeskidzie win by 2+ | 14% | 7.08 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Podbeskidzie and Pogoń Siedlce recent form
Podbeskidzie
0W 4D 2L
Pogoń Siedlce
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Podbeskidzie at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pogoń Siedlce away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Podbeskidzie at home only, Pogoń Siedlce away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Arka Gdynia v Polonia Warszawa — match page 2026-10-10
- Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Unia Skierniewice vs Nieciecza 2026-10-10
- Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań 2026-10-11
- ŁKS Łódź v Ruch Chorzów — match page 2026-10-11
- Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Bytom — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Odra Opole vs Miedz Legnica 2026-10-11
- Stal Rzeszów vs Lechia Gdansk — team news & stats 2026-10-12