Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia preview
Lechia Gdansk has a 54% chance to win against Arka Gdynia, who has a 23% chance, with a likely scoreline of 2-1 at 9%. The model indicates a strong possibility for Over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams to score at 66%.
Lechia Gdansk is in good form, winning 5 of their last 6 matches, while Arka Gdynia has struggled, losing 3 of their last 5. However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting that unexpected outcomes could occur, especially given Arka Gdynia's recent draw against a stronger opponent.
Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia: model vs market
| Source | Lechia Gdansk | Draw | Arka Gdynia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 23% | 22% |
| Market | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Published | 44% | 25% | 30% |
| Edge | +15% | -4% | -11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.28.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Lechia Gdansk below the model: +15.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lechia Gdansk, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lechia Gdansk | 2.15 | 2.25 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.48 | +0.06 |
| Arka Gdynia | 2.97 | 2.75 | -0.22 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lechia Gdansk and Arka Gdynia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.39
- Attack rating (Lechia Gdansk / Arka Gdynia)
- 1.36 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Lechia Gdansk / Arka Gdynia)
- 1.06 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lechia Gdansk goals. Columns: Arka Gdynia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lechia Gdansk | 44% | 2.26 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.95 | |
| Arka Gdynia | 30% | 3.29 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.55 |
| No | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lechia Gdansk or draw) | 70% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Arka Gdynia) | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lechia Gdansk win by 2+ | 34% | 2.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Lechia Gdansk and Arka Gdynia recent form
Lechia Gdansk
5W 0D 1L
Arka Gdynia
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lechia Gdansk at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Arka Gdynia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lechia Gdansk at home only, Arka Gdynia away only.
Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Lechia Gdansk 1 · draws 1 · Arka Gdynia 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | Arka Gdynia | 2-2 | Lechia Gdansk | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-08-24 | Lechia Gdansk | 1-0 | Arka Gdynia | Ekstraklasa |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Warta Poznań v Unia Skierniewice — match page 2026-10-16
- Ruch Chorzów v Odra Opole — match page 2026-10-16
- Miedz Legnica v Stal Mielec — match page 2026-10-17
- Polonia Bytom vs Chrobry Głogów — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa 2026-10-17
- ŁKS Łódź vs Podbeskidzie — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszów 2026-10-18
- Nieciecza vs Puszcza Niepołomice 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Lechia Gdansk, previous: Stal Rzeszów v Lechia Gdansk analysis
- Lechia Gdansk, next: Lechia Gdansk – Jagiellonia, 2026-10-28
- Arka Gdynia, previous: Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa: odds and pick