Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszów preview
In the I Liga fixture between Pogoń Siedlce and Stal Rzeszów, the 1X2 probabilities show Pogoń Siedlce at 38%, Stal Rzeszów at 33%, and a draw at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Pogoń Siedlce, with a 9% chance. The expected goals suggest Pogoń will score 1.30 while Stal is projected at 1.20.
Both teams to score has a probability of 52%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 46%. Pogoń Siedlce's recent form shows 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while Stal Rzeszów has won 4 of their last 5. This recent form could influence the outcome, making it possible for Stal Rzeszów to perform better than expected.
Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszów: model vs market
| Source | Pogoń Siedlce | Draw | Stal Rzeszów |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 29% | 31% |
| Market | 41% | 27% | 31% |
| Published | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Edge | -2% | +2% | 0% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszów odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Pogoń Siedlce, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-14.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pogoń Siedlce | 2.19 | 2.19 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.30 | +0.00 |
| Stal Rzeszów | 2.91 | 2.91 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Pogoń Siedlce and Stal Rzeszów expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.50
- Attack rating (Pogoń Siedlce / Stal Rzeszów)
- 0.81 / 1.01
- Defence rating (Pogoń Siedlce / Stal Rzeszów)
- 0.86 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszów score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Pogoń Siedlce goals. Columns: Stal Rzeszów goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszów goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszów
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pogoń Siedlce | 41% | 2.45 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Stal Rzeszów | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Pogoń Siedlce or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Stal Rzeszów) | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Handicap -1 | Pogoń Siedlce win by 2+ | 18% | 5.42 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Pogoń Siedlce and Stal Rzeszów recent form
Pogoń Siedlce
3W 1D 2L
Stal Rzeszów
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Pogoń Siedlce at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Stal Rzeszów away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Pogoń Siedlce at home only, Stal Rzeszów away only.
Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszów head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Pogoń Siedlce 0 · draws 1 · Stal Rzeszów 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Pogoń Siedlce | 1-2 | Stal Rzeszów | I Liga |
| 2025-11-02 | Stal Rzeszów | 1-1 | Pogoń Siedlce | I Liga |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Warta Poznań v Unia Skierniewice — match page 2026-10-16
- Ruch Chorzów v Odra Opole — match page 2026-10-16
- Miedz Legnica v Stal Mielec — match page 2026-10-17
- Polonia Bytom vs Chrobry Głogów — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa 2026-10-17
- ŁKS Łódź vs Podbeskidzie — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Nieciecza vs Puszcza Niepołomice 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Pogoń Siedlce, previous: Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice: odds and pick
- Pogoń Siedlce, next: Tychy 71 vs Pogoń Siedlce: odds and pick
- Stal Rzeszów, previous: Stal Rzeszów v Lechia Gdansk analysis