Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa preview
In the I Liga fixture on 2026-10-17, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki has a 33% chance to win, while Polonia Warszawa stands at 41%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 7% probability. The model suggests a 54% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance for both teams to score.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's expected goals are 1.63, compared to Polonia Warszawa's 1.20. Recent form shows Pogoń with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, while Polonia has 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa: model vs market
| Source | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | Draw | Polonia Warszawa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Market | 29% | 26% | 46% |
| Published | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| Edge | +18% | +1% | -19% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Polonia Warszawa, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 3.16 | 3.20 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 3.57 | 3.55 | -0.02 |
| Polonia Warszawa | 1.98 | 2.00 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and Polonia Warszawa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.83
- Attack rating (Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki / Polonia Warszawa)
- 1.16 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki / Polonia Warszawa)
- 0.80 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki goals. Columns: Polonia Warszawa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 33% | 3.03 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Polonia Warszawa | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.74 |
| No | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or draw) | 59% | 1.69 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Polonia Warszawa) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | Polonia Warszawa win by 2+ | 11% | 8.76 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and Polonia Warszawa recent form
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
3W 1D 2L
Polonia Warszawa
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Polonia Warszawa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at home only, Polonia Warszawa away only.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 5 · draws 1 · Polonia Warszawa 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 3-2 | Polonia Warszawa | I Liga |
| 2025-08-30 | Polonia Warszawa | 2-1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | I Liga |
| 2025-01-18 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 3-1 | Polonia Warszawa | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-07-12 | Polonia Warszawa | 2-4 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2021-05-15 | Polonia Warszawa | 0-2 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | III Liga - Group 1 |
| 2021-04-03 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 3-3 | Polonia Warszawa | III Liga - Group 1 |
| 2021-03-13 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 1-0 | Polonia Warszawa | III Liga - Group 1 |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Warta Poznań v Unia Skierniewice — match page 2026-10-16
- Ruch Chorzów v Odra Opole — match page 2026-10-16
- Miedz Legnica v Stal Mielec — match page 2026-10-17
- Polonia Bytom vs Chrobry Głogów — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- ŁKS Łódź vs Podbeskidzie — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszów 2026-10-18
- Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Nieciecza vs Puszcza Niepołomice 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, previous: Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki prediction
- Polonia Warszawa, previous: Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa: odds and pick