Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice preview
In the I Liga fixture, Pogoń Siedlce faces Puszcza Niepołomice with a 42% probability of winning for Pogoń compared to 27% for Puszcza. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 41% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams to score. Pogoń's expected goals stand at 1.32, while Puszcza's is lower at 1.01.
Recent form shows Pogoń with three wins in their last five matches, while Puszcza has only two wins in the same period. Pogoń has not won against Puszcza in their last two meetings, with one draw and one loss. This context could affect the outcome, particularly if Puszcza improves their performance.
Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice: model vs market
| Source | Pogoń Siedlce | Draw | Puszcza Niepołomice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 32% | 30% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 38% | 32% | 30% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet). Best available price on the pick: 3.10, recorded — the top price across the 12 books we record, each at its own last update.
Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Pogoń Siedlce, 10 snapshots since 2026-09-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pogoń Siedlce | 3.06 | 2.78 | -0.28 |
| Draw | 3.17 | 3.09 | -0.08 |
| Puszcza Niepołomice | 2.20 | 2.39 | +0.19 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Pogoń Siedlce and Puszcza Niepołomice expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.21
- Attack rating (Pogoń Siedlce / Puszcza Niepołomice)
- 0.81 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Pogoń Siedlce / Puszcza Niepołomice)
- 0.85 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Pogoń Siedlce goals. Columns: Puszcza Niepołomice goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pogoń Siedlce | 38% | 2.60 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.16 | |
| Puszcza Niepołomice | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.19 |
| No | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Pogoń Siedlce or draw) | 70% | 1.43 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.46 | |
| X2 (draw or Puszcza Niepołomice) | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | Pogoń Siedlce win by 2+ | 17% | 5.88 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Pogoń Siedlce and Puszcza Niepołomice recent form
Pogoń Siedlce
3W 1D 2L
Puszcza Niepołomice
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Pogoń Siedlce at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Puszcza Niepołomice away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Pogoń Siedlce at home only, Puszcza Niepołomice away only.
Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Pogoń Siedlce 0 · draws 1 · Puszcza Niepołomice 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 3-0 | Pogoń Siedlce | I Liga |
| 2025-08-24 | Pogoń Siedlce | 0-0 | Puszcza Niepołomice | I Liga |
Before and after this match
- Pogoń Siedlce, previous: Podbeskidzie v Pogoń Siedlce analysis
- Puszcza Niepołomice, previous: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Bytom: odds and pick