Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice preview
In the Ekstraklasa fixture between Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice, Gornik Zabrze has a 54% chance to win, while Piast Gliwice stands at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% probability. Gornik Zabrze's recent form shows 6 matches with 5 wins and 1 draw, while Piast Gliwice has won 5 out of their last 6 matches.
Both teams to score has a 59% chance according to our model, and Over 2.5 goals is at 56%. However, Gornik Zabrze's expected goals are 1.69 compared to Piast Gliwice's 1.24, which suggests a tighter contest could emerge. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome.
Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice: model vs market
| Source | Gornik Zabrze | Draw | Piast Gliwice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Market | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Published | 54% | 24% | 21% |
| Edge | -10% | +3% | +8% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 1.24.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.68, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Gornik Zabrze, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gornik Zabrze | 1.63 | 1.62 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.92 | 3.92 | +0.00 |
| Piast Gliwice | 4.74 | 4.75 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.93
- Attack rating (Gornik Zabrze / Piast Gliwice)
- 1.13 / 1.21
- Defence rating (Gornik Zabrze / Piast Gliwice)
- 0.85 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gornik Zabrze goals. Columns: Piast Gliwice goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gornik Zabrze | 54% | 1.84 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.12 | |
| Piast Gliwice | 21% | 4.67 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.69 |
| No | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gornik Zabrze or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Piast Gliwice) | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gornik Zabrze win by 2+ | 25% | 3.95 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice recent form
Gornik Zabrze
5W 1D 0L
Piast Gliwice
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gornik Zabrze at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Piast Gliwice away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gornik Zabrze at home only, Piast Gliwice away only.
Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Gornik Zabrze 2 · draws 0 · Piast Gliwice 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Gornik Zabrze | 2-1 | Piast Gliwice | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-07-26 | Piast Gliwice | 0-1 | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa |
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- Motor Lublin v Slask Wroclaw — match page 2026-10-17
- GKS Katowice vs Pogon Szczecin — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Cracovia Krakow v Legia Warszawa — match page 2026-10-17
- Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia — team news & stats 2026-10-18
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- Wisla Plock v Radomiak Radom — match page 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Gornik Zabrze, previous: Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze: odds and pick
- Gornik Zabrze, next: Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze: odds and pick
- Piast Gliwice, previous: Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź: odds and pick
- Piast Gliwice, next: Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze: odds and pick