Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa preview
In the Ekstraklasa fixture between Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa, the 1X2 probabilities show Legia Warszawa at 44% to win, while Cracovia Krakow stands at 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Both teams are expected to score, with a 60% probability, and there is a 57% likelihood of Over 2.5 goals.
Cracovia Krakow's recent form shows 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Legia Warszawa has 2 wins in the same span. This disparity in form could impact the match outcome. However, if Cracovia Krakow improves their performance, the predicted scoreline and probabilities may not hold true.
Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa: model vs market
| Source | Cracovia Krakow | Draw | Legia Warszawa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 27% | 49% |
| Market | 34% | 27% | 39% |
| Published | 32% | 27% | 41% |
| Edge | -9% | -1% | +10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.15.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Legia Warszawa below the model: +9.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.47, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Legia Warszawa, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cracovia Krakow | 2.83 | 2.70 | -0.12 |
| Draw | 3.28 | 3.40 | +0.12 |
| Legia Warszawa | 2.38 | 2.38 | -0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.82
- Attack rating (Cracovia Krakow / Legia Warszawa)
- 0.96 / 1.29
- Defence rating (Cracovia Krakow / Legia Warszawa)
- 1.07 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cracovia Krakow goals. Columns: Legia Warszawa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cracovia Krakow | 32% | 3.14 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.71 | |
| Legia Warszawa | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.77 |
| No | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cracovia Krakow or draw) | 59% | 1.70 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Legia Warszawa) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Legia Warszawa win by 2+ | 27% | 3.77 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cracovia Krakow and Legia Warszawa recent form
Cracovia Krakow
1W 1D 4L
Legia Warszawa
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cracovia Krakow at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Legia Warszawa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cracovia Krakow at home only, Legia Warszawa away only.
Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warszawa head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Cracovia Krakow 1 · draws 0 · Legia Warszawa 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Legia Warszawa | 1-0 | Cracovia Krakow | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-08-31 | Cracovia Krakow | 2-1 | Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow 2026-10-16
- Motor Lublin v Slask Wroclaw — match page 2026-10-17
- GKS Katowice vs Pogon Szczecin — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice 2026-10-18
- Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce 2026-10-18
- Wisla Plock v Radomiak Radom — match page 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Cracovia Krakow, previous: Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin prediction
- Legia Warszawa, previous: Legia Warszawa – Wisla Krakow, 2026-10-11