Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom preview
In the Ekstraklasa fixture between Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom, the 1X2 probabilities show Wisla Plock at 50% to win, while both a draw and a Radomiak Radom victory sit at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance of occurring. Wisla Plock has an expected goals figure of 1.97, compared to Radomiak Radom's 1.13, indicating a stronger attacking potential.
The model predicts a 60% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 59% likelihood for both teams to score. However, Wisla Plock’s recent form includes 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Radomiak Radom has 3 wins in the same timeframe. This inconsistency could affect the outcome, making it difficult to predict the match with certainty.
Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom: model vs market
| Source | Wisla Plock | Draw | Radomiak Radom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 24% | 21% |
| Market | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Published | 49% | 25% | 25% |
| Edge | +8% | -2% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Wisla Plock below the model: +8.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.01, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Wisla Plock, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wisla Plock | 1.95 | 1.96 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.58 | -0.02 |
| Radomiak Radom | 3.45 | 3.45 | -0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.10
- Attack rating (Wisla Plock / Radomiak Radom)
- 0.85 / 0.78
- Defence rating (Wisla Plock / Radomiak Radom)
- 1.21 / 1.46
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Wisla Plock goals. Columns: Radomiak Radom goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wisla Plock | 49% | 2.02 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.95 | |
| Radomiak Radom | 25% | 3.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.68 |
| No | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Wisla Plock or draw) | 75% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Radomiak Radom) | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Handicap -1 | Wisla Plock win by 2+ | 34% | 2.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom recent form
Wisla Plock
3W 1D 2L
Radomiak Radom
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Wisla Plock at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Radomiak Radom away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 3.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Wisla Plock at home only, Radomiak Radom away only.
Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Wisla Plock 0 · draws 1 · Radomiak Radom 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Wisla Plock | 0-1 | Radomiak Radom | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-10-27 | Radomiak Radom | 1-1 | Wisla Plock | Ekstraklasa |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow 2026-10-16
- Motor Lublin v Slask Wroclaw — match page 2026-10-17
- GKS Katowice vs Pogon Szczecin — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Cracovia Krakow v Legia Warszawa — match page 2026-10-17
- Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice 2026-10-18
- Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Wisla Plock, previous: Wieczysta Kraków vs Wisla Plock: odds and pick
- Wisla Plock, next: Puszcza Niepołomice v Wisla Plock analysis
- Radomiak Radom, previous: Radomiak Radom v Motor Lublin analysis
- Radomiak Radom, next: Avia Świdnik vs Radomiak Radom prediction