Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction & Betting Tips 15/10/2026

Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia preview

In the UEFA Europa League fixture between Jagiellonia and Ararat-Armenia, the 1X2 probabilities show Jagiellonia at 40%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 (9%). The model predicts a high chance of Over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams to score at 64%.

Jagiellonia's recent form includes three losses in their last five matches, while Ararat-Armenia has won three out of their last five. This could impact performance, as Jagiellonia's confidence grade is C. If Jagiellonia's struggles continue, it may affect their ability to secure a win despite the favorable probabilities.

Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Jagiellonia	Draw	Ararat-Armenia
Model	40%	26%	35%
Market	67%	20%	13%
Published	60%	21%	19%
Edge	-27%	+6%	+21%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.44, recorded 2026-10-10 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.

Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Jagiellonia, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 1.40Now 1.40 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Jagiellonia	1.40	1.40	+0.00
Draw	4.72	4.75	+0.03
Ararat-Armenia	7.00	7.00	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Jagiellonia and Ararat-Armenia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.65Jagiellonia

1.53Ararat-Armenia

Total expected goals: 3.17
Attack rating (Jagiellonia / Ararat-Armenia): 1.14 / 1.19
Defence rating (Jagiellonia / Ararat-Armenia): 1.13 / 0.93

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.2% 5.3% 4.9% 2.5% 1.3% 1 5.8% 11.6% 8.0% 4.1% 2.2% 2 5.7% 8.7% 6.6% 3.4% 1.8% 3 3.1% 4.7% 3.6% 1.9% 1.0% 4+ 1.8% 2.8% 2.2% 1.1% 0.6%

Rows: Jagiellonia goals. Columns: Ararat-Armenia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 84%

Over 2.5 61%

Over 3.5 39%

Both teams to score: 64%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Jagiellonia	60%	1.66
	Draw	21%	4.72
	Ararat-Armenia	19%	5.34
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	61%	1.63
	Under 2.5	39%	2.60
Both teams to score	Yes	64%	1.56
	No	36%	2.80
Double chance	1X (Jagiellonia or draw)	81%	1.23
	12 (either side)	79%	1.27
	X2 (draw or Ararat-Armenia)	40%	2.51
Handicap -1	Jagiellonia win by 2+	21%	4.83
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer