Celta Vigo vs Juventus preview
Celta Vigo faces Juventus with a 14% chance of winning for the home side, while Juventus has a 61% probability of victory. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with Juventus's expected goals of 1.76 compared to Celta Vigo's 0.74.
Both teams to score stands at 44%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 46%. Celta Vigo's recent form shows one win in six matches, while Juventus has won four of their last six. If Celta Vigo can improve their scoring, it might challenge Juventus's dominance, but their low expected goals could hinder that effort.
Why this pick: Celta Vigo vs Juventus
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Celta Vigo 10, Juventus 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Celta Vigo vs Juventus: model vs market
| Source | Celta Vigo | Draw | Juventus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14% | 25% | 61% |
| Market | 27% | 27% | 46% |
| Published | 24% | 27% | 49% |
| Edge | -13% | -2% | +15% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 0.74.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Juventus below the model: +15.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.12, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Celta Vigo vs Juventus odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Juventus, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | 3.47 | 3.47 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.46 | 3.46 | +0.00 |
| Juventus | 2.07 | 2.07 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Celta Vigo and Juventus expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.50
- Attack rating (Celta Vigo / Juventus)
- 0.86 / 1.49
- Defence rating (Celta Vigo / Juventus)
- 1.03 / 0.56
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Celta Vigo vs Juventus score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Celta Vigo goals. Columns: Juventus goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Celta Vigo vs Juventus goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Celta Vigo vs Juventus
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Celta Vigo | 24% | 4.18 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Juventus | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.26 |
| No | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Celta Vigo or draw) | 51% | 1.97 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Juventus) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Handicap -1 | Juventus win by 2+ | 36% | 2.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Celta Vigo and Juventus recent form
Celta Vigo
1W 3D 2L
Juventus
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
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- Rennes v OFI — match page 2026-10-15
- Hoffenheim v Beşiktaş — match page 2026-10-15
- Benfica v Celtic — match page 2026-10-15
- Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia 2026-10-15
- NEC Nijmegen v Levski Sofia — match page 2026-10-15
- Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- Celta Vigo, previous: Elche – Celta Vigo, 2026-10-11
- Juventus, previous: Cagliari vs Juventus: odds and pick