Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus preview
In the UEFA Europa League fixture between Marseille and Olympiakos Piraeus, the 1X2 probabilities show Marseille at 40%, while Olympiakos Piraeus stands at 34%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 7% chance according to our model. The expected goals indicate Marseille at 1.35 and Olympiakos Piraeus at 1.86, suggesting a competitive match.
Both teams to score has a probability of 64%, and Over 2.5 goals sits at 62%. However, Marseille's recent form is concerning, with five losses in their last six matches. This poor run could impact their performance and alter the expected outcomes.
Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus: model vs market
| Source | Marseille | Draw | Olympiakos Piraeus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 25% | 49% |
| Market | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Published | 40% | 26% | 34% |
| Edge | -17% | -1% | +19% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Marseille, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 2.12 | 2.12 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| Olympiakos Piraeus | 3.17 | 3.17 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Marseille and Olympiakos Piraeus expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.21
- Attack rating (Marseille / Olympiakos Piraeus)
- 1.29 / 1.03
- Defence rating (Marseille / Olympiakos Piraeus)
- 1.58 / 0.68
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Marseille goals. Columns: Olympiakos Piraeus goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marseille | 40% | 2.51 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.89 | |
| Olympiakos Piraeus | 34% | 2.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.57 |
| No | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Marseille or draw) | 66% | 1.52 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Olympiakos Piraeus) | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Handicap -1 | Marseille win by 2+ | 12% | 8.29 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Marseille and Olympiakos Piraeus recent form
Marseille
1W 0D 5L
Olympiakos Piraeus
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
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- Rennes v OFI — match page 2026-10-15
- Hoffenheim v Beşiktaş — match page 2026-10-15
- Benfica v Celtic — match page 2026-10-15
- Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia 2026-10-15
- NEC Nijmegen v Levski Sofia — match page 2026-10-15
- Celta Vigo v Juventus — match page 2026-10-15
- Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- Marseille, previous: Estac Troyes vs Marseille: odds and pick
- Olympiakos Piraeus, previous: Olympiakos Piraeus v Panathinaikos analysis