Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz preview
In the UEFA Europa League fixture, Bournemouth has a 53% chance to win against Sturm Graz, who has a 22% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with Bournemouth's expected goals of 1.77 compared to Sturm Graz's 1.07.
Both teams to score stands at 56%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 54%. However, Bournemouth's recent form shows a mix of results with 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 6 matches, which could impact their performance. Sturm Graz has also been inconsistent, with 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 6 games, suggesting that their ability to score could affect the match outcome.
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz: model vs market
| Source | Bournemouth | Draw | Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 26% | 22% |
| Market | 79% | 13% | 7% |
| Published | 73% | 16% | 11% |
| Edge | -27% | +12% | +14% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.07.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.21, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bournemouth, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 1.19 | 1.19 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 7.00 | 7.00 | +0.00 |
| Sturm Graz | 13.00 | 13.00 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bournemouth and Sturm Graz expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.84
- Attack rating (Bournemouth / Sturm Graz)
- 1.33 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Bournemouth / Sturm Graz)
- 0.95 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bournemouth goals. Columns: Sturm Graz goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bournemouth | 73% | 1.38 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.07 | |
| Sturm Graz | 11% | 9.23 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.80 |
| No | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bournemouth or draw) | 89% | 1.12 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or Sturm Graz) | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bournemouth win by 2+ | 30% | 3.32 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Bournemouth and Sturm Graz recent form
Bournemouth
2W 3D 1L
Sturm Graz
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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Before and after this match
- Bournemouth, previous: Chelsea vs Bournemouth prediction
- Sturm Graz, previous: Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz prediction