Benfica vs Celtic preview
In the UEFA Europa League match between Benfica and Celtic, the 1X2 probabilities show Benfica at 69% to win, while Celtic sits at 13%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Benfica has an expected goals figure of 2.67, compared to Celtic's 1.15, suggesting a strong offensive performance from Benfica.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. While the model predicts Over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams to score at 64%, factors like recent form and unexpected events could influence the outcome. Benfica's recent record shows 5 wins and 1 loss, while Celtic has 4 wins and 2 losses.
Benfica vs Celtic: model vs market
| Source | Benfica | Draw | Celtic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69% | 18% | 13% |
| Market | 75% | 16% | 9% |
| Published | 73% | 16% | 10% |
| Edge | -6% | +2% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.67 vs 1.15.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.29, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Benfica vs Celtic odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Benfica, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 1.25 | 1.26 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 5.93 | 5.93 | +0.00 |
| Celtic | 9.90 | 9.90 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Benfica and Celtic expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.83
- Attack rating (Benfica / Celtic)
- 1.84 / 1.29
- Defence rating (Benfica / Celtic)
- 0.78 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Benfica vs Celtic score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Benfica goals. Columns: Celtic goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Benfica vs Celtic goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Benfica vs Celtic
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benfica | 73% | 1.37 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.14 | |
| Celtic | 10% | 9.53 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.78 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.55 |
| No | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Benfica or draw) | 90% | 1.12 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| X2 (draw or Celtic) | 27% | 3.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Benfica win by 2+ | 49% | 2.05 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Benfica and Celtic recent form
Benfica
5W 0D 1L
Celtic
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Benfica at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
- They average 4.7 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Benfica at home only, Celtic away only.
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
- Bournemouth v Sturm Graz — match page 2026-10-15
- Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Rennes v OFI — match page 2026-10-15
- Hoffenheim v Beşiktaş — match page 2026-10-15
- Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia 2026-10-15
- NEC Nijmegen v Levski Sofia — match page 2026-10-15
- Celta Vigo v Juventus — match page 2026-10-15
- Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- Benfica, previous: Benfica vs Vitória SC prediction
- Celtic, previous: Motherwell v Celtic analysis