Benfica vs Vitória SC: model vs market
| Source | Benfica | Draw | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| Market | 77% | 15% | 8% |
| Published | 77% | 15% | 8% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Benfica vs Vitória SC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Benfica, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 1.25 | 1.21 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 5.55 | 6.17 | +0.62 |
| Vitória SC | 10.00 | 11.62 | +1.62 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Benfica and Vitória SC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.28
- Attack rating (Benfica / Vitória SC)
- 1.84 / 0.72
- Defence rating (Benfica / Vitória SC)
- 0.78 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Benfica vs Vitória SC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Benfica goals. Columns: Vitória SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Benfica vs Vitória SC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Benfica vs Vitória SC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benfica | 77% | 1.30 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.57 | |
| Vitória SC | 8% | 12.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.14 |
| No | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Benfica or draw) | 92% | 1.08 |
| 12 (either side) | 85% | 1.18 | |
| X2 (draw or Vitória SC) | 23% | 4.35 | |
| Handicap -1 | Benfica win by 2+ | 57% | 1.76 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Benfica and Vitória SC recent form
Benfica
5W 0D 1L
Vitória SC
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Benfica at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 3.1 goals per match.
- They average 3.8 goals per game on the road against 2.3 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Vitória SC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Benfica at home only, Vitória SC away only.
Expected lineups
Benfica lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 24 Samuel Soares
- 26 S. Dahl
- 3 A. Circati
- 44 Tomás Araújo
- 6 A. Bah
- 36 João Palhinha
- 18 L. Barreiro
- 21 A. Schjelderup
- 25 G. Prestianni
- 27 Rafa
- 14 V. Pavlidis
Bench: A. Trubin, F. Aursnes, H. Sudakov, D. Lukebakio, Manu, J. Durán, C. Echeverri, Gabriel Indio, S. El Karouani, J. Neto, A. Cabral
Vitória SC lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 48 O. Zych
- 13 João Mendes
- 21 T. Borevković
- 28 Thiago Balieiro
- 23 T. Strata
- 44 L. Doucet
- 8 Gonçalo Nogueira
- 17 Miguel Nogueira
- 20 Samu
- 7 O. Camara
- 9 A. Jakupovic
Bench: Miguel Maga, Óscar Rivas, A. Sidibé, M. Mitrović, Alan, Beni, Telmo Arcanjo, V. Andersson, V. Ouotro, S. Verdi, F. Dias, Lucas Furtado
Benfica vs Vitória SC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Benfica 7 · draws 3 · Vitória SC 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Benfica | 3-0 | Vitória SC | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-11-01 | Vitória SC | 0-3 | Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-04-19 | Vitória SC | 0-3 | Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| 2024-12-07 | Benfica | 1-0 | Vitória SC | Primeira Liga |
| 2024-02-11 | Vitória SC | 2-2 | Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| 2023-09-02 | Benfica | 4-0 | Vitória SC | Primeira Liga |
| 2023-03-18 | Benfica | 5-1 | Vitória SC | Primeira Liga |
| 2022-10-01 | Vitória SC | 0-0 | Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| 2022-02-27 | Benfica | 3-0 | Vitória SC | Primeira Liga |
| 2021-10-27 | Vitória SC | 3-3 | Benfica | Taça da Liga |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Moreirense v GIL Vicente — match page 2026-10-09
- SC Braga vs Sporting CP — team news & stats 2026-10-09
- Maritimo vs FC Porto 2026-10-10
- Academico Viseu v Estoril — match page 2026-10-10
- Casa Pia v Santa Clara — match page 2026-10-10
- Rio Ave vs Nacional 2026-10-11
- Arouca vs Estrela — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Famalicao vs Alverca 2026-10-12
Before and after this match
- Benfica, next: Benfica v Celtic analysis
- Vitória SC, next: Recreativa de Lamelas v Vitória SC analysis