Recreativa de Lamelas vs Vitória SC Prediction & Betting Tips 17/10/2026

Recreativa de Lamelas vs Vitória SC preview

In the upcoming match between Recreativa de Lamelas and Vitória SC, the 1X2 probabilities show Recreativa de Lamelas at 58% to win, while Vitória SC sits at 17%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a probability of 11%. Recreativa de Lamelas has an expected goals figure of 1.81, compared to Vitória SC's 0.90, indicating a stronger attacking performance.

However, both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 51%, suggesting that there is a chance for a more open game. Recent form also plays a role, with Recreativa de Lamelas coming off a win, while Vitória SC has had mixed results, including three draws and two losses in their last six matches.

Recreativa de Lamelas vs Vitória SC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Recreativa de Lamelas	Draw	Vitória SC
Model	58%	25%	17%
Market	—	—	—
Published	58%	25%	17%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 0.90.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Recreativa de Lamelas and Vitória SC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.81Recreativa de Lamelas

0.90Vitória SC

Total expected goals: 2.71
Attack rating (Recreativa de Lamelas / Vitória SC): 1.25 / 0.64
Defence rating (Recreativa de Lamelas / Vitória SC): 0.94 / 0.84

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Recreativa de Lamelas vs Vitória SC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.7% 4.9% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 1 10.9% 11.9% 4.9% 1.5% 0.4% 2 10.9% 9.8% 4.4% 1.3% 0.4% 3 6.6% 5.9% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 4+ 4.5% 4.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: Recreativa de Lamelas goals. Columns: Vitória SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Recreativa de Lamelas vs Vitória SC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 76%

Over 2.5 51%

Over 3.5 29%

Both teams to score: 51%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Recreativa de Lamelas vs Vitória SC

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Recreativa de Lamelas	58%	1.73
	Draw	25%	4.01
	Vitória SC	17%	5.77
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	51%	1.96
	Under 2.5	49%	2.04
Both teams to score	Yes	51%	1.97
	No	49%	2.03
Double chance	1X (Recreativa de Lamelas or draw)	83%	1.21
	12 (either side)	75%	1.33
	X2 (draw or Vitória SC)	42%	2.37
Handicap -1	Recreativa de Lamelas win by 2+	34%	2.95
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer