Fazendense vs Estrela Prediction & Betting Tips 17/10/2026

Fazendense vs Estrela preview

Fazendense faces Estrela with a 62% probability of winning compared to Estrela's 18%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which has a 9% chance of occurring. Fazendense has an expected goals figure of 2.43, while Estrela sits at 1.29.

Both teams to score stands at 67%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 72%. However, recent form shows Fazendense with two wins and one loss, while Estrela has one win, three draws, and one loss. This could impact the match dynamics, potentially leading to a different outcome than predicted. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the forecast.

Fazendense vs Estrela: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Fazendense	Draw	Estrela
Model	62%	20%	18%
Market	—	—	—
Published	62%	20%	18%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.43 vs 1.29.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Fazendense and Estrela expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.43Fazendense

1.29Estrela

Total expected goals: 3.72
Attack rating (Fazendense / Estrela): 1.29 / 1.01
Defence rating (Fazendense / Estrela): 0.85 / 1.10

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Fazendense vs Estrela score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.2% 2.4% 2.0% 0.9% 0.4% 1 5.1% 8.4% 4.9% 2.1% 0.9% 2 7.2% 9.2% 5.9% 2.6% 1.1% 3 5.8% 7.5% 4.8% 2.1% 0.9% 4+ 6.3% 8.1% 5.2% 2.2% 1.0%

Rows: Fazendense goals. Columns: Estrela goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Fazendense vs Estrela goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 89%

Over 2.5 72%

Over 3.5 51%

Both teams to score: 67%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Fazendense vs Estrela

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Fazendense	62%	1.62
	Draw	20%	5.00
	Estrela	18%	5.50
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	72%	1.39
	Under 2.5	28%	3.54
Both teams to score	Yes	67%	1.50
	No	33%	3.01
Double chance	1X (Fazendense or draw)	82%	1.22
	12 (either side)	80%	1.25
	X2 (draw or Estrela)	38%	2.62
Handicap -1	Fazendense win by 2+	41%	2.43
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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