Sanjoanense vs Nacional Prediction & Betting Tips 17/10/2026

Sanjoanense vs Nacional preview

In the Taça de Portugal match between Sanjoanense and Nacional, the 1X2 probabilities show Sanjoanense at 65% to win, while Nacional sits at 15%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with an expected goals of 2.29 for Sanjoanense and 1.02 for Nacional.

The model suggests a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 58%. However, the recent form of Nacional, with 5 losses in their last 6 matches, could impact their performance. Sanjoanense's recent results show 2 wins and 1 loss, which might not guarantee a straightforward victory.

Sanjoanense vs Nacional: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Sanjoanense	Draw	Nacional
Model	65%	20%	15%
Market	—	—	—
Published	65%	20%	15%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 1.02.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 3 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Sanjoanense and Nacional expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.29Sanjoanense

1.02Nacional

Total expected goals: 3.31
Attack rating (Sanjoanense / Nacional): 1.20 / 0.69
Defence rating (Sanjoanense / Nacional): 0.99 / 1.11

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sanjoanense vs Nacional score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.5% 2.9% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 1 7.5% 9.4% 4.3% 1.5% 0.5% 2 9.6% 9.8% 5.0% 1.7% 0.5% 3 7.3% 7.5% 3.8% 1.3% 0.4% 4+ 7.2% 7.3% 3.7% 1.3% 0.4%

Rows: Sanjoanense goals. Columns: Nacional goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sanjoanense vs Nacional goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 85%

Over 2.5 64%

Over 3.5 42%

Both teams to score: 58%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sanjoanense vs Nacional

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Sanjoanense	65%	1.54
	Draw	20%	4.92
	Nacional	15%	6.86
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	64%	1.55
	Under 2.5	36%	2.80
Both teams to score	Yes	58%	1.71
	No	42%	2.40
Double chance	1X (Sanjoanense or draw)	85%	1.17
	12 (either side)	80%	1.26
	X2 (draw or Nacional)	35%	2.86
Handicap -1	Sanjoanense win by 2+	43%	2.32
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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