Vianense vs Leixoes Prediction & Betting Tips 17/10/2026

Vianense vs Leixoes preview

In the Taça de Portugal match between Vianense and Leixoes, the 1X2 probabilities show Vianense at 42%, Leixoes at 33%, and a draw at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to our model.

Both teams have shown strong attacking potential, with expected goals of 1.82 for Vianense and 1.60 for Leixoes. The model suggests a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 68%. However, recent form could influence the outcome, as Vianense has a record of W-W-L-W-W, while Leixoes has W-D-W-W-L-W.

Vianense vs Leixoes: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Vianense	Draw	Leixoes
Model	42%	24%	33%
Market	—	—	—
Published	42%	24%	33%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Vianense and Leixoes expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.82Vianense

1.60Leixoes

Total expected goals: 3.42
Attack rating (Vianense / Leixoes): 1.64 / 1.16
Defence rating (Vianense / Leixoes): 0.92 / 0.64

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Vianense vs Leixoes score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.2% 4.3% 4.2% 2.2% 1.3% 1 5.0% 10.5% 7.6% 4.1% 2.3% 2 5.4% 8.7% 6.9% 3.7% 2.1% 3 3.3% 5.3% 4.2% 2.2% 1.3% 4+ 2.3% 3.6% 2.9% 1.5% 0.9%

Rows: Vianense goals. Columns: Leixoes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Vianense vs Leixoes goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 86%

Over 2.5 66%

Over 3.5 45%

Both teams to score: 68%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Vianense vs Leixoes

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Vianense	42%	2.36
	Draw	24%	4.11
	Leixoes	33%	3.01
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	66%	1.51
	Under 2.5	34%	2.98
Both teams to score	Yes	68%	1.47
	No	32%	3.11
Double chance	1X (Vianense or draw)	67%	1.50
	12 (either side)	76%	1.32
	X2 (draw or Leixoes)	58%	1.74
Handicap -1	Vianense win by 2+	23%	4.29
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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